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New virus called ?threat to the entire world?

This really belongs in the flu bug thread but I couldn't find it?

I really don't care for "officials" making comments like this "threat to the entire world."

While is certainly may be true I would reserve such comments from when the world needs
to take world wide dramatic steps to hunker down and make sure this critter has run its
course. We're not there yet - hope we don't get there. I kind of feel like this kind of
comment by someone in the WHO innoculates us against a threat that must be acted
upon by mankind in order to survive. This may become that - but its not there yet
with under a 100 infections.
 

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Just watched a report on this. As for the Flu thread, good question. I can't seem to find it...
 

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I posted on both novel coronavirus AND H7N9 not too long ago.

There was a new case in Beijing a 6 year old boy who was just diagnosed with H7N9. It has NOT gone away, and it won't. It will smolder a case here and there, until one of the embers catches in human to human transmission. China recently arrested a blogger, so we get little information. Several provinces also reopened wet markets, which is a bad idea in my opinion. Also Bloomberg cancelled some big financial conference in China due to fears of H7N9.

As for the article, it was discussing novel coronavirus, nCoV. nCoV has been spreading in the Middle East. The case in France was in Saudi and caught it there, went home to France and infected his hospital room mate with it. Saudi Arabia is very secretive and we are not getting the information we need. I don't want to panic people with some of the reports I get, because some of them could be rumors.

My concern is this. Ramadan is coming up in July-August, and the Hajj in October. I have concerns that 5-6 million people will travel to Saudi to do their Umrah or pilgrimage. I don't think that Saudi has a handle on the nCoV. My concern, is that these people will be coming home after exposure, via numerous airports, and exposing people in airports and at home. nCoV does spread human to human.

You may find searching under H7N9 or nCov or novel corona virus. I also just posted under 'just when you thought.....'

I watch this stuff every day. If I see something spark, I will let you guys know. I have data coming in, in several different languages, which I have to interpret, and now and then things don't make sense using machine interpretation.

Again, we have several 'germs' right now, that have pandemic potentials with a high mortality rate. Novel Coronavirus is a SARS like disease, currently centered in the Arabian peninsula. It spreads human to human, all age ranges are affected. There is no vaccine. High mortality rate, about 50% even with heroic treatment.

H7N9 is somewhat quiet right now, but a new case was just diagnosed. It appears to spread from bird to human via air and body fluids. It has very high mutation potential to go human to human. It has shown airborne transmission in ferrets. It does not have a vaccine. It is developing some strains that are resistant to Tamiflu. I don't expect much action from this germ until Fall.

H5N1 is a flu that is transmitted to humans from birds. It has a high mortality rate. We have vaccine but not enough. This crops up all over SE Asia and other countries as well. So far, it hasn't gone human to human. China created a hybrid of H5N1 with the pandemic strain H1N1. It's in a lab right now.

Also, you will see reports of H1N1 which was the 'swine flu' of 2009. It isn't a swine flu, it's an avian flu. Regardless, it is still circulating and it is still killing people. Vaccine is available.

There are several dozen avian influenzas that are being watched in poultry, wild birds at all times. Clusters of animal to human cases are also watched.

Yes, nCoV, H7N9 and H5N1 are three of the candidates that threaten the world with pandemic. I would not be in fear of any thing immediate occurring in the next few months. I would however, not travel to the Middle East. Frankly, I would avoid international airports circa July and August, but, hey, that is just me.
 

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Good ol' IngaLisa! You obviously spend a bunch of time studying these things and writing them up for us. I REALLY appreciate it because my skills do not even allow me to know where to look to compile the info you give us, much less how to translate med-speak into English, not to mention the other languages. Thanks a bunch!
 

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New virus called ?threat to the entire world?

This really belongs in the flu bug thread but I couldn't find it?

I really don't care for "officials" making comments like this "threat to the entire world."

While is certainly may be true I would reserve such comments from when the world needs
to take world wide dramatic steps to hunker down and make sure this critter has run its
course. We're not there yet - hope we don't get there. I kind of feel like this kind of
comment by someone in the WHO innoculates us against a threat that must be acted
upon by mankind in order to survive. This may become that - but its not there yet
with under a 100 infections.
A great example of why we are so fortunate to have IngaLisa here. As they said on Dragnet "The facts mam just the facts."
 

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Thanks for the info, Inga, and thanks a LOT for the head's up on airports during Ramadan.
 

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I always keep in mind, that there are huge profits to be made, by any corporation claiming to have a vaccine or a drug to treat any number of ailments. All the huge corporations of the world are all connected, and any 'disaster' in one sector is money to be made in another, and since like royalty, they are all linked it is totally correct to question if some medical threat to humanity is truly a opportunity for a corporation to make money. In fact, there is a big dispute going on right now, over who actually OWNS this novel corona virus or MERS as they call it. The dispute over ownership caused delays in diagnostics. I am not sure if it has even been resolved. Frankly, if a brave doc from Egypt had not sent the virus to the Netherlands, we would still not know of nCoV. He was working in Saudi, at the time, and they are very angry with him. He is back in Egypt now. I am sure Saudi didn't want news of this virus getting out and secondly they wanted to secure 'intellectual rights' to the virus, and a cut of any money made from tests developed, vaccine developed and drugs developed to treat it. That's a lot of money.

Privatization of this process is a problem in terms of public safety, but governments don't really have the ability to do this kind of research either. The World Health Organization is a GOOD organization, as is the CDC, but they only have so much staff and they only have access to what any given government gives them access to. Saudi Arabia isn't even a member of the World Health Organization, at all. I wonder if some of the countries that are, really can be relied upon to give full disclosure to the WHO. For example, North Korea is a member. Many countries have suppressed bloggers who try to give out information, and some have thrown them in prison.

But, YES, I do consider who profits from what, when news like this is released.

Some Chinese guy was angry enough to kill a public health official, and I would bet the farm it was some small scale poultry farmer or some one who lives off the land, and he probably was put out of business by the huge bird cull in China, and the move to large scale CAFO type production in China. The answer for China may be as simple as nice butcher shops, where small farmers can bring their birds for sanitary processing. Some provinces re-opened their wet markets, I suspect due to the fact that they are part of Chinese culture. The losses to the poultry market in China and even worldwide from H7N9 was pretty bad. Possibly overblown. It looks to me, from what I could gather, that the main reason that H7N9 was spreading was those plucking machines that cause aerosolization of body fluids. The damp climate of the wet market allowed this aerosol to get deep into people's lungs. Any place you bring a lot of animals together, even such as the county and state fairs are an opportunity for germs to exchange. Add butchering, and ick. Big mess. But now H7N9 is out there. It's in wild birds. It's in a small percent of domestic birds. It's in some people, not a lot, but each time, it gets a new chance to reshuffle the DNA deck and recombine in a way that could make it more transmissible.

It's interesting that China just bought Smithfield, America's largest producer of pork. If you remember, 16,000 pigs were found floating in a river near Shanghai just before H7N9 broke out.

It's good to question, not only the government, but also private entities who stand to profit, before we blindly jump on any bandwagon.
 
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