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US Dollar collapse finally coming?

5K views 54 replies 8 participants last post by  stowlin 
#1 ·
We've all seen many instances of this same prediction. It's been presented in numerous ways and has been linked to all sorts of deadlines.
Here's another one! 😁


Could we finally be entering the final stages of the collapse of the US Dollar?
The article's author makes a few compelling arguments for why it could be around the corner.
Firstly is Russia's recent insistence that European nations currently buying their oil from Russia start doing so using Russian Rubles. The USD has been the world's "petrodollar" for almost 50 years. If we lose that agreement, our money could once again free fall in value, just as it did when Nixon decoupled it from gold.
At the rate we're printing it, and with rising inflation as of late, we could be seeing the perfect storm on the horizon.

I don't really need to tell this group how to prepare for this where their wealth is concerned. Most of you have plans that involve hard assets such as precious metals, ammunition, food, and the like.
What I would encourage you to do is to take the advice the author recommends, and start pushing the idea of a backup currency that your state can prepare to implement, secured by real assets like gold/silver, and start having this discussion with your state legislature critters.

The article makes some dire predictions about timing, and I don't put much faith in their accuracy, but I do expect them to come to fruition eventually.
We'll have a much better picture by next year, but there's no better time to be ready for it than yesterday.

What do you folks think about the points presented, and the timeline laid out?
 
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#2 ·
eh... The Petrol Dollar is backed up by something... oil. The hydrocarbin ruble is Russia's attempt to sell their petrol on the world market, which uses dollars &, its just another fiat currency. I don't think it will collapse the dollar. The yuan didn't collapse the dollar. Bitcoin didn't collapse the dollar. All together they haven't collapsed the dollar.

No what will collapse the US dollar? Printing out more dollars to increase its devaluation. Seems to me people (Dems) want to blame the Dem's economic failures on the Russians but, oil was rising in price under the Green Economy and the "Green New Deal."
 
#3 ·
eh... The Petrol Dollar is backed up by something... oil. The hydrocarbin ruble is Russia's attempt to sell their petrol on the world market, which uses dollars &, its just another fiat currency. I don't think it will collapse the dollar. The yuan didn't collapse the dollar. Bitcoin didn't collapse the dollar. All together they haven't collapsed the dollar.
The Saudi's are seriously considering switching to the yuan. Most oil producing nations are also considering this. The yuan is backed by gold that China has been acquiring over the years.
 
#6 ·
Firstly is Russia's recent insistence that European nations currently buying their oil from Russia start doing so using Russian Rubles.
Our (The German) Government just released a statement, along with some other european countries, that we will honor the contracts for russian oil and gas and those contracts contains payments in US Dollars and Euros, not rubel.

Link to a Newspaper article (Sorry, it is in German)

I do not think that russia can effort not selling oil and gas to europe, so they will have to accept this or bring up whole europe against them.
And while russia is a big country, this time Germany is not alone in this "quest".

Also, obviously, big Russia has its hands full with some ukranian farmers allready...
Ukrainian farmers steal Russian tanks
 
#8 ·
Our (The German) Government just released a statement, along with some other european countries, that we will honor the contracts for russian oil and gas and those contracts contains payments in US Dollars and Euros, not rubel.

Link to a Newspaper article (Sorry, it is in German)

I do not think that russia can effort not selling oil and gas to europe, so they will have to accept this or bring up whole europe against them.
And while russia is a big country, this time Germany is not alone in this "quest".
Using Google Translate, I have an overall understanding of the article.
It seems that the German government and the Italian government believe they are protected by contract agreements from Putin altering his demands.
It remains to be seen if Putin cares about the contract agreements. Contracts only matter if both sides choose not to violate them. I have no idea what repercussions exist if Putin chooses to violate the agreement.
But we do know what happens to the oil recipients if he follows through and cuts off the supply.

I guess we'll see who's bluffing and who's not very soon.
 
#7 ·
Once putin is done getting his butt kicked in Ukraine will the russia rubby collapse? Will ole putin even be around much longer? How long before he gets eliminated? The great russian army is a paper tiger, aka joke.

Why would anybody want to trade in a russian money??
 
#11 ·
It's being reported, but I've not yet pulled additional sources, that India is now entering the final stages of agreement to start buying Russian oil without using the USD "petrodollar".

I had every expectation that the USD would remain the world's oil dollar as long as we had open trade. Our economy is unrivaled. But with sanctions, that changes the game completely.
If the trend continues, we can expect bad things.
Let's hope it doesn't.
 
#12 ·
Just remember that as of right now... 1 ruble is worth $0.01 so buying Russian oil means at say $30 a barrel, it's 3,000 rubles. Even at cheaper prices, Russia is already suffering a depression and has been for decades. This military action in Ukraine is already sucking up Russian resources.
 
#19 ·
The fact that the USD is the world’s reserve currency, and the fact that oil is traded in USD’s, are the only things preventing our economy from total collapse.
At present time, we can not even pay the interest on our debt, let alone pay down our debt. We have to BORROW money to make our interest payments, which in turn deepens our debt.
 
#36 ·
Why should any of this scare me... Its like a tornado or a hurricane, I can't prevent it and, its going to happen. Democrat or Republican its all the same, one hand washes the other. Its all by design and I can't stop it. All Russia is doing, is showing us how this system works but, that what the Global System has been designed to do. Its what the UN and Globalist want. My little conspiracy theory, is that this is all a staged... Eventually, they will crash the US economy and this is just a show, to inspire the sheeple to trust in Globalism. They can and will do this to us all anyway and could since the 80s, 90s and what do you think that means in 2022? Wake up, we been on a slow burn SHTF for so long we don't even know it.
 
#38 ·
Right and this using Indian Rupees doesn't impact the dollar so much as forces Russians to rely on the Indian economy to prop up their own. Switching to SAFE would be more destructive. Russia and Iran already trade oil for gold directly...

Maybe even oil and gold for weapons tech who knows..? Trading with smaller countries isn't going to do much to the US economy but, it's the bigger economies that spell trouble. Russia is also a prime example of how threatening Globalization is... If the World Governments can do this to Russia, why and when will they do it to the US?

A lot of foreign economies depends on the USA and have a vested interest in our continued support but, given enough alternatives like SAFE and direct resource exchange and we got an economic problem.
 
#39 ·
Right and this using Indian Rupees doesn't impact the dollar so much as forces Russians to rely on the Indian economy to prop up their own. Switching to SAFE would be more destructive. Russia and Iran already trade oil for gold directly...

Maybe even oil and gold for weapons tech who knows..? Trading with smaller countries isn't going to do much to the US economy but, it's the bigger economies that spell trouble. Russia is also a prime example of how threatening Globalization is... If the World Governments can do this to Russia, why and when will they do it to the US?

A lot of foreign economies depends on the USA and have a vested interest in our continued support but, given enough alternatives like SAFE and direct resource exchange and we got an economic problem.
Right, the India/Russia agreement won't directly affect us in the least.
However, it does open the potential for other countries to start trading with Russia in currencies other than the USD "petrodollar", if the trade agreement is a benefit for both sides.
That's what I'm worried about.
If inflation continues to push down the value of our dollar, and other countries see this alternative to still do business with Russia, we could see a decline in use of USD. A decline of any significance will further push the value of our dollar down.
 
#40 ·
Not likely... First of all, the alternative to the petrodollar is direct trade or, foreign independent account in foreign currency. In the first case I have to ship item x to you and ship item y back. It makes me basically a colony of your economy. It also leaves you open to guerrilla actions or military action. In the second case, I am relying on the value of your fiat currency and its value in the world market... Globalization at work.

Secondly, if you owe me a dollar and it's value depletes based on inflation rate, then you still owe me the equivalent of that dollar, even if it's$1,000 now and so many countries owe the US. Plus we can do direct exchange as well, and if our economy tanks several tank with it

When I wrote Poor man's Guide to Prepping, I suggested that people grow simulated wild gensieng and sell it directly to Chinese buyers (80 to 90% of the buyer market) for Yuan directly and investing in Pesos, get them at 20 to 1 and when the economy shifts downward, exchange them back at the higher exchange rate. Highest exchange rate under Obama was 8 to 1. So buy them at 20 to 1 and sell them at 10 to 1 and even with the 10 to 15% fee it's a better than 150% profit.

Like I said in another post, I can't change the weather but, I can find ways to ride out the storm.
 
#41 ·
Secondly, if you owe me a dollar and it's value depletes based on inflation rate, then you still owe me the equivalent of that dollar, even if it's$1,000 now and so many countries owe the US.
That's an incorrect assessment, actually.
As our dollar devalues, we still only owe the same number of dollars, not the same value that those dollars used to represent.
A country experiencing inflation and a devaluation of their own dollar actually benefits, in a sense, where their debt is concerned.
Inflation is a tool used by governments to decrease their debt burden. It's more palatable to citizens and politicians than the alternative methods, even if it's a net loss for the country.
Here's an example I pulled from an article on the topic:
How Does Inflation Reduce Debt?
With inflation, the losers are the people and institutions that own the debt, because the currency shrinks in value. For example, say you loan the government money by buying a $1000 U.S. government bond that matures in ten years. At the time you buy it, you could buy a fully loaded laptop or a round trip ticket to London for $1000.

Now, let’s say the U.S. inflates its currency at a 7% rate for the next ten years, which would be about twice the “normal” inflation rate of 3.3% for the past 80 years. At the end of that time the bond matures and you get your $1000 back. You go to buy a laptop; they now sell for $2000. That trip to London costs $2000, too. Many people in this situation will think that the prices of laptops and airline tickets have gone up.

Actually, in real dollars (which are dollars adjusted for inflation), the cost of these items hasn’t gone up a dime. It’s the value of the dollar that’s gone down, in this case, by 50% over ten years. The big winner here is the U.S. government, because its multi trillion-dollar debt has been chopped in half (again in real dollar terms) in ten short years. They accomplished this without raising taxes or cutting spending, which is intoxicatingly appealing to politicians.
(source: Rick Kahler: Inflation a Tool to Reduce National Debt | Kahler Financial)
If a country continues into an inflationary spiral, other countries are less inclined to purchase that country's debt, knowing the dollars they get back at the end of the bond period won't be as valuable as they were when the debt was first purchased.
This can cause a lowering of USD as a reserve currency, and it can incentivize other countries to look for alternative means to purchase oil without needing to convert or keep USD.
Currency is literally a supply/demand issue. The less demand there is for your currency, while maintaining or increasing the supply, the lower the value drops.
Whether it's fiat or not, this rule remains the same. You don't invest in junk for the sake of holding the junk. You invest in the things you think will increase in value, which requires an increase in demand or a drop in supply.
The USD has been falling out of demand for a while, and we don't know how much farther it can fall before it's no longer preferred.
I'm not trying to claim it's "likely". But we need to be aware that it's entirely plausible, and be ready for that eventuality.
 
#43 ·
Publicly held debt does not have any such agreement, as it is simply sold as bonds which people and other nations can purchase.
The value of the bond is fixed at maturation and is not adjusted for inflation. That's why inflation is essentially a reduction of publicly held debt. At maturation, the real value of the bond is lower than it would have otherwise been without inflation occurring.
 
#44 ·
Are all such agreements between nations as such...?

Let me explain, between you and government you buy bonds and get money back after a time.
Between Country A and Country B, what kind of agreements does the State Department use?

This is what I mean by agreements between nations. By the time you buy a $25 Bond for $15 and, government pays you $25 for cashing in your bond 10 years later your $25 dollars is worth the $15 you paid for it, at this rate of inflation you'll lose money... lol
 
#45 ·
Between Country A and Country B, what kind of agreements does the State Department use?
They use the same "agreement" as you would make buying debt yourself from the government. That being, the purchase of a U.S. Treasury Security.
There is no special "government to government" means of buying debt.
There are two types of public debt options available for purchase at auction.
1. Treasury Securities
2. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

The first is the what is held by the vast majority of all holders of US debt, individuals, banks, investment firms, and foreign governments. They are relatively stable, offer a wide variety of maturity ranges, are easy to purchase, and can be cheaper to buy in the long run.
The second is the type you are thinking of, and they are much more rare. The reason being, their rates can go negative or stagnate, depending on the rate of inflation/deflation. Since they are sold in 5, 10, and 30 year maturity ranges, it's a risk to assume inflation will result in a net gain over normal securities. If you could forecast an inflation period, and know it would beat a normal rate offered by the standard securities, you may take the risk. Most don't.
Nearly all public debt is held as Treasury Securities, in the form of T-bills, T-notes, and T- bonds.

So the game becomes, how far could the inflationary spiral go, and for how long?
Would it be wise to say it would go 5 years? (the minimum maturity range available) Maybe. That's the risk.
But if we see inflation for 2-3 years, and then recover into a period of deflation, then it would have been more wise to buy normal securities than to buy inflation-protected ones.
Investors must also contend with the risk that an inflationary spiral could become so bad that the government defaults on its securities payments because it doesn't have the money to meet them.
This would require a drastic downturn, and is unlikely, but it looms as a possibility.
 
#46 ·
It looks like Russia is setting itself up to use a new gold standard to back its money.

If they are no longer a fiat currency, this could have big implications in the future.
 
#48 ·
Europe is showing its belly:
Now the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is confirming that European gas buyers are paying for energy in Russian rubles. Draghi now says that “most gas importers” have opened up Ruble accounts with Gazprom and have acquiesced to Russian demands. One after the other, European gas buyers are violating the EU’s sanctions against Russia, as Western tough talk becomes nothing but a mere echo of weakness. The world’s reserve currency – the U.S. dollar – is taking a historic blow in the process, as Russia circumvents the petrodollar.
 
#51 ·
The US got away with massive dollar creation, and I believe they will get away with it. The thing about the dollar is no alternative. If a Russia, China, and India collectively agreed to a UN “greenback” and even offered to include the dollar in a basket of currencies maybe. That doesn’t seem to be working and much of the remaining free world would no longer include Russia. Despite rabid over printing (creating money) I believe they will get away with it. I didn’t think that a year ago, but I do now.
 
#52 ·
Your prediction appears to be playing out.
The "BRICS" countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are officially creating a new "basket of currencies" which will be used as their new global reserve currency, with their stated goal being to “cut reliance on the Western financial system.”

The US dollar's popularity is declining as its value does the same.
I wonder how long it can last...
 
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