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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
We've all seen many instances of this same prediction. It's been presented in numerous ways and has been linked to all sorts of deadlines.
Here's another one! 😁


Could we finally be entering the final stages of the collapse of the US Dollar?
The article's author makes a few compelling arguments for why it could be around the corner.
Firstly is Russia's recent insistence that European nations currently buying their oil from Russia start doing so using Russian Rubles. The USD has been the world's "petrodollar" for almost 50 years. If we lose that agreement, our money could once again free fall in value, just as it did when Nixon decoupled it from gold.
At the rate we're printing it, and with rising inflation as of late, we could be seeing the perfect storm on the horizon.

I don't really need to tell this group how to prepare for this where their wealth is concerned. Most of you have plans that involve hard assets such as precious metals, ammunition, food, and the like.
What I would encourage you to do is to take the advice the author recommends, and start pushing the idea of a backup currency that your state can prepare to implement, secured by real assets like gold/silver, and start having this discussion with your state legislature critters.

The article makes some dire predictions about timing, and I don't put much faith in their accuracy, but I do expect them to come to fruition eventually.
We'll have a much better picture by next year, but there's no better time to be ready for it than yesterday.

What do you folks think about the points presented, and the timeline laid out?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Our (The German) Government just released a statement, along with some other european countries, that we will honor the contracts for russian oil and gas and those contracts contains payments in US Dollars and Euros, not rubel.

Link to a Newspaper article (Sorry, it is in German)

I do not think that russia can effort not selling oil and gas to europe, so they will have to accept this or bring up whole europe against them.
And while russia is a big country, this time Germany is not alone in this "quest".
Using Google Translate, I have an overall understanding of the article.
It seems that the German government and the Italian government believe they are protected by contract agreements from Putin altering his demands.
It remains to be seen if Putin cares about the contract agreements. Contracts only matter if both sides choose not to violate them. I have no idea what repercussions exist if Putin chooses to violate the agreement.
But we do know what happens to the oil recipients if he follows through and cuts off the supply.

I guess we'll see who's bluffing and who's not very soon.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Former Texas Senator, and staunch isolationist, Ron Paul has some opinions on the matter:

He mentions that India has already considered buying oil from Russia using Russian rubles. Also the Chinese using yuan.
 
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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
It's being reported, but I've not yet pulled additional sources, that India is now entering the final stages of agreement to start buying Russian oil without using the USD "petrodollar".

I had every expectation that the USD would remain the world's oil dollar as long as we had open trade. Our economy is unrivaled. But with sanctions, that changes the game completely.
If the trend continues, we can expect bad things.
Let's hope it doesn't.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Just remember that as of right now... 1 ruble is worth $0.01 so buying Russian oil means at say $30 a barrel, it's 3,000 rubles. Even at cheaper prices, Russia is already suffering a depression and has been for decades. This military action in Ukraine is already sucking up Russian resources.
The conversion to USD doesn't matter if Russia choose to only use the Indian Rupees they receive for oil to buy goods from India. They trade together in a lot of different markets.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Except in the global commodities market. The price is the same just using a different currency...
Dollar $1
Mexican Peso 20
Philippine Pesos 50
Rupee ?
Rubles 100
Thats not to say Russia can't undercut Others on the market but, that you're looking at near equal value across the board, regardless of the currency.
But again, I'm not referring to the global market. I'm specifically talking about the direct trade between the two countries.
As the article points out:
India exported $3.3 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2021, mostly pharmaceutical products, tea, and coffee.
If Russia continues to import these goods from India, they'll do so in Rupees they've received from the oil sales to India.
With other countries shunning Russian exports, it's the logical conclusion to think they will operate in whatever currency a still-trading partner wants to use.
 
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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Right... I don't disagree but a Rupee and Ruble trade for roughly 1 to 1.26 & that is what I am saying... How willing is India to trade with Russia off the open market for less then open market prices?

Many Goods made in India are made by Foreign investors trading for "pennies on the dollar" and for India to risk being excluded from the rest of the market to basically lose other potential customers they have to have kind of offset for the potential loss. A $15 dollar item is still 1,500 rupees so lets say Russia is selling oil at 50% of the Global price, are the Russians also getting a discount on Indian imports or, are they paying "full price." If they are paying full price, then how long can the Russian economy suffer the burden of an economic depression, plus inflation and high export costs/and low import profits? I'm just neither the US nor the USSR did too well with those conditions.
Why are you assuming Russia is selling oil at a discount to India? You're still thinking about this in terms of how the transaction converts to USD.
The Rupee and the Ruble will be agreed upon to represent a specific amount of oil, not USD. From that point, once Russia has Rupees, they'll use them to buy from India. Remember, nobody else wants to trade with Russia at the moment. The "global market" isn't open to Russia.
The sanctions will push Russia into the arms of countries who still need their goods, and it could end up hurting the US more than Russia.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
I never said they were...
I am saying the Ruble is lowest it has ever been... India buying oil is buying oil at the same price from Russia as it is from anyone else on the Global Market... Unless Russia is selling oil at a discount compared to OPEC or the rest of the world, there is no point in India risking sanctions for dealing with Russia. It doesn't what currency is used, the price is the same... the $103 average is still $103 even if it is in Rupees (10,300 Rupees) unless Russia is selling it cheaper. If your India and oil from Russia is costing you 10,300 Rupees a barrel or, you can get it from literally anyone else for the same price, why risk pissing off the rest of the world?

Who cares if you spend Rupees or Dollars, its all the same? That is my point. Sure you can print more Rupees and, Russia can spend them on Beans, Bullets and Band aids from India. But, without India is literally basically trading Oil for Whatever, like a Barter System with Russia. And India can already "print" more fiat Rupees to buy more fiat Dollars as is. So why bother with Russia..? Unless Russia can/is discounting the oil compared to the others on the global market.
I'm not sure what you're trying to claim.
You started with the premise that Russia must be discounting their oil in order for India to think it's better to get oil from them than any other oil producer.
"...so lets say Russia is selling oil at 50% of the Global price..."
I questioned where you got this premise from, and you responded that you never said they were... but that they must be.
So are they, or aren't they?
India IS negotiating to buy oil using Rupees. For any goods Russia wishes to buy from India, they don't have to go through any currency exchange for the privilege if they use the Rupee.
India doesn't have to convert to USD to buy oil from Russia, and Russia doesn't have to convert to Rupees to buy trade goods from India.
The cost savings is built in to the transaction.
 
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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
India doesn't need to convert its currency but, Russia does and the Indians gain 0.26 on the Rupee.
You're going to have to break this down.
Why would Russia need to convert the Rupees they receive before using them to buy goods from India?
When I say they are using the same money to buy from India, I literally mean the same money. An account kept all in Rupees would never need converting if it were to be used for buying only in Rupees.
India's oil purchases are not propping up Russia to allow them to buy other goods from other countries. But as far as this specific trade is concerned, they can stick to one currency.
 

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Discussion Starter · #25 ·
That's not quite true. You can do a search and what you will find is a number of countries refused to sanction Russia. Among those are Mexico, Argentina and Brazil. And India has now decided.
Yes, I was a bit too broad in that statement.
I'll clarify. Doing business with Russia is currently frowned upon.
If you want to be part of the "in crowd", you've tried to sever all ties... at least publicly.
So they don't have access to the open global market as they once did.
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
I think the list of those choosing not to be part of the In Crowd may be growing. Some are tired of being told what to do.

It does make me wonder if they can create their own global market, for lack of a better term. This was tried a number of years ago with BRICS but didn't go anywhere that I saw. I don't think it went away, just got quiet for a while.
And that's what worries me.
A new market without the U.S. means we suffer because our dollar drops in demand.
 

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Discussion Starter · #33 ·
The Indian Rupee is 1.00 to the 1.26 Russian Ruble, Rubles have a 0.26 mark up on the Rupee... So India gets 5 Rubles for 4 Rupees on the exchange. The money isn't as far as I read anywhere kept in an Indian account but, ok lets say it is... Otherwise just India transferring the fund through SAFE (China's State Administered Foreign Exchange) they lose a bit on the exchange. As for if, the account is located in India... like I said its basically a Barter System between nations oil for Rupees, spend the Rupees on x goods. India of course has to import a lot of goods for Russia. So far Russia is damaging itself...

Personally, I don't think this will collapse the US economy, that is happening due to our own financial policies...
You still seem stuck on this idea that there must be an exchange of currencies.
Russia could just as easily have India hold their(Russia's) reserve currency of Rupees in India, and trade between each other for goods using that holding.
Even now, China holds most of Russia's reserve currency of cash, and its in Yuan. This makes it crazy easy for Russia to do business with China without converting any money.
 

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Discussion Starter · #37 ·
Russia selling oil for Rupees, to spend Rupees in India for items is basically Barter Economics on a National level...
Precisely.
Sorry if you tried to make that point earlier and I missed it.
That's all currency is. A means to barter via an approved medium.
We exchange currencies only when the one we have isn't approved for the trade we need to make.
 

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Discussion Starter · #39 ·
Right and this using Indian Rupees doesn't impact the dollar so much as forces Russians to rely on the Indian economy to prop up their own. Switching to SAFE would be more destructive. Russia and Iran already trade oil for gold directly...

Maybe even oil and gold for weapons tech who knows..? Trading with smaller countries isn't going to do much to the US economy but, it's the bigger economies that spell trouble. Russia is also a prime example of how threatening Globalization is... If the World Governments can do this to Russia, why and when will they do it to the US?

A lot of foreign economies depends on the USA and have a vested interest in our continued support but, given enough alternatives like SAFE and direct resource exchange and we got an economic problem.
Right, the India/Russia agreement won't directly affect us in the least.
However, it does open the potential for other countries to start trading with Russia in currencies other than the USD "petrodollar", if the trade agreement is a benefit for both sides.
That's what I'm worried about.
If inflation continues to push down the value of our dollar, and other countries see this alternative to still do business with Russia, we could see a decline in use of USD. A decline of any significance will further push the value of our dollar down.
 

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Discussion Starter · #41 ·
Secondly, if you owe me a dollar and it's value depletes based on inflation rate, then you still owe me the equivalent of that dollar, even if it's$1,000 now and so many countries owe the US.
That's an incorrect assessment, actually.
As our dollar devalues, we still only owe the same number of dollars, not the same value that those dollars used to represent.
A country experiencing inflation and a devaluation of their own dollar actually benefits, in a sense, where their debt is concerned.
Inflation is a tool used by governments to decrease their debt burden. It's more palatable to citizens and politicians than the alternative methods, even if it's a net loss for the country.
Here's an example I pulled from an article on the topic:
How Does Inflation Reduce Debt?
With inflation, the losers are the people and institutions that own the debt, because the currency shrinks in value. For example, say you loan the government money by buying a $1000 U.S. government bond that matures in ten years. At the time you buy it, you could buy a fully loaded laptop or a round trip ticket to London for $1000.

Now, let’s say the U.S. inflates its currency at a 7% rate for the next ten years, which would be about twice the “normal” inflation rate of 3.3% for the past 80 years. At the end of that time the bond matures and you get your $1000 back. You go to buy a laptop; they now sell for $2000. That trip to London costs $2000, too. Many people in this situation will think that the prices of laptops and airline tickets have gone up.

Actually, in real dollars (which are dollars adjusted for inflation), the cost of these items hasn’t gone up a dime. It’s the value of the dollar that’s gone down, in this case, by 50% over ten years. The big winner here is the U.S. government, because its multi trillion-dollar debt has been chopped in half (again in real dollar terms) in ten short years. They accomplished this without raising taxes or cutting spending, which is intoxicatingly appealing to politicians.
(source: Rick Kahler: Inflation a Tool to Reduce National Debt | Kahler Financial)
If a country continues into an inflationary spiral, other countries are less inclined to purchase that country's debt, knowing the dollars they get back at the end of the bond period won't be as valuable as they were when the debt was first purchased.
This can cause a lowering of USD as a reserve currency, and it can incentivize other countries to look for alternative means to purchase oil without needing to convert or keep USD.
Currency is literally a supply/demand issue. The less demand there is for your currency, while maintaining or increasing the supply, the lower the value drops.
Whether it's fiat or not, this rule remains the same. You don't invest in junk for the sake of holding the junk. You invest in the things you think will increase in value, which requires an increase in demand or a drop in supply.
The USD has been falling out of demand for a while, and we don't know how much farther it can fall before it's no longer preferred.
I'm not trying to claim it's "likely". But we need to be aware that it's entirely plausible, and be ready for that eventuality.
 

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Discussion Starter · #43 ·
Depends on if our loan clause has an agreement to adjust for Inflation/Devaluation... I believe loans between nations might account for such, for us an individuals I think not.
Publicly held debt does not have any such agreement, as it is simply sold as bonds which people and other nations can purchase.
The value of the bond is fixed at maturation and is not adjusted for inflation. That's why inflation is essentially a reduction of publicly held debt. At maturation, the real value of the bond is lower than it would have otherwise been without inflation occurring.
 
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Discussion Starter · #45 ·
Between Country A and Country B, what kind of agreements does the State Department use?
They use the same "agreement" as you would make buying debt yourself from the government. That being, the purchase of a U.S. Treasury Security.
There is no special "government to government" means of buying debt.
There are two types of public debt options available for purchase at auction.
1. Treasury Securities
2. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

The first is the what is held by the vast majority of all holders of US debt, individuals, banks, investment firms, and foreign governments. They are relatively stable, offer a wide variety of maturity ranges, are easy to purchase, and can be cheaper to buy in the long run.
The second is the type you are thinking of, and they are much more rare. The reason being, their rates can go negative or stagnate, depending on the rate of inflation/deflation. Since they are sold in 5, 10, and 30 year maturity ranges, it's a risk to assume inflation will result in a net gain over normal securities. If you could forecast an inflation period, and know it would beat a normal rate offered by the standard securities, you may take the risk. Most don't.
Nearly all public debt is held as Treasury Securities, in the form of T-bills, T-notes, and T- bonds.

So the game becomes, how far could the inflationary spiral go, and for how long?
Would it be wise to say it would go 5 years? (the minimum maturity range available) Maybe. That's the risk.
But if we see inflation for 2-3 years, and then recover into a period of deflation, then it would have been more wise to buy normal securities than to buy inflation-protected ones.
Investors must also contend with the risk that an inflationary spiral could become so bad that the government defaults on its securities payments because it doesn't have the money to meet them.
This would require a drastic downturn, and is unlikely, but it looms as a possibility.
 
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Discussion Starter · #46 ·
It looks like Russia is setting itself up to use a new gold standard to back its money.

If they are no longer a fiat currency, this could have big implications in the future.
 

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Discussion Starter · #48 ·
Europe is showing its belly:
Now the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is confirming that European gas buyers are paying for energy in Russian rubles. Draghi now says that “most gas importers” have opened up Ruble accounts with Gazprom and have acquiesced to Russian demands. One after the other, European gas buyers are violating the EU’s sanctions against Russia, as Western tough talk becomes nothing but a mere echo of weakness. The world’s reserve currency – the U.S. dollar – is taking a historic blow in the process, as Russia circumvents the petrodollar.
 

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Discussion Starter · #50 ·
Not all the pressure in the West is coming from Russia... The US could easily export gas to Europe but, well... Biden.
"But Biden" seems to come up in a lot of my conversations lately.
 
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