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4,373 Posts
Here is my hypothesis on the times ahead.
Right after Newtown the chatter of the Assault Weapons Ban caused receivers to spike and then the upper component which is something you can still mail order in most places. The lowers subsided big time after a spike in January but the uppers have remained a little high - they are better now but still a tad high.
My hypothesis is quite simple. This year, from any time now till December 31, 2013 these components are again going to rise. In fact I dare say they are going to skryocket. The price gougers are going to come out of the wood works and I would not be surprised for lowers reaching $300/400 for basic one's and uppers hitting $1k for the same (basic types like Palmetto, Stag, etc). These uppers are usually $500/$600 often with the bolt group.
The reason for this is California. While th "AWB" isn't going to happen in our congress / senate thank God it is going to happen in CA. The people of the state will respond by creating the spike ahead. The ban is moving thru with flying colors in a democratic controlled assembly and senate (they can even block a fillibuster with 2/3rds total control of both houses). Moonbeam will likely sign and the "AR" as we know it will no longer be transferrable in CA - even if you die - kids won't be allowed to inherit. No sales, no transfers - this will kill more than 1/2 of the gun shops in the state most likely since the "AR" is the leading seller.
Shortly after that happens, next Feb/March, the lack of a market in CA is going to mean a "flood" of market in the free states. I imagine by the summer of 2014 there should be a free fall in "AR" components as the mass producers look to replace that CA market which is currently 12.5% to 15% of their business. If Conneticut, New York, Mass, IL, and perhaps someof the other smaller NE states follow suit the "AR" market could lose 33% of its customer base to laws and regulation.
Right after Newtown the chatter of the Assault Weapons Ban caused receivers to spike and then the upper component which is something you can still mail order in most places. The lowers subsided big time after a spike in January but the uppers have remained a little high - they are better now but still a tad high.
My hypothesis is quite simple. This year, from any time now till December 31, 2013 these components are again going to rise. In fact I dare say they are going to skryocket. The price gougers are going to come out of the wood works and I would not be surprised for lowers reaching $300/400 for basic one's and uppers hitting $1k for the same (basic types like Palmetto, Stag, etc). These uppers are usually $500/$600 often with the bolt group.
The reason for this is California. While th "AWB" isn't going to happen in our congress / senate thank God it is going to happen in CA. The people of the state will respond by creating the spike ahead. The ban is moving thru with flying colors in a democratic controlled assembly and senate (they can even block a fillibuster with 2/3rds total control of both houses). Moonbeam will likely sign and the "AR" as we know it will no longer be transferrable in CA - even if you die - kids won't be allowed to inherit. No sales, no transfers - this will kill more than 1/2 of the gun shops in the state most likely since the "AR" is the leading seller.
Shortly after that happens, next Feb/March, the lack of a market in CA is going to mean a "flood" of market in the free states. I imagine by the summer of 2014 there should be a free fall in "AR" components as the mass producers look to replace that CA market which is currently 12.5% to 15% of their business. If Conneticut, New York, Mass, IL, and perhaps someof the other smaller NE states follow suit the "AR" market could lose 33% of its customer base to laws and regulation.
