The default of humans to "CHOOSE" to believe the future will mimic current reality.
All lot of us deal with normalcy bias to some degree or another. We all have expectations of future events based on past events. People in Aurora Co went to see a Batman movie, and just like the 100's of movies they'd seen before, fully expected the movie to play without incident. But life doesn't always play out as expected. We all have this bias to some degree, otherwise our brains would go mad at constantly believing the sky was falling and that ever person we encounter is a threat..
The challenge we face is learning to quickly recognize reality, true reality, and adjust. A good book that discusses this is 299 Days, by Glenn Tate. In 299 Days, the main character has a wife with sever normalcy bias, who is unable to envision a world that could change, or has changed. The wife didn't recognize reality. This is a major problem. In fact, I find normalcy bias is a common theme in most apocalyptic fiction. This is what always gets people in trouble.
At my work, we call this emotional intelligence, the ability to self assess and recognize fact from fiction (about ourselves). In our hiring and training program, new employees are constantly evaluated on their ability to self assess their current abilities and situation. If the trainee is aware enough to realize they effed up, and work to correct the problem, it's a LOT better than an employee who thinks they did a great job, when in reality they really suck.
In my personal life, I also deal with a spouse with normalcy bias, big time. While she tolerates my prepping, she absolutely thinks I'm being overly paranoid and she kinda thinks it's a joke. While the events of the last couple years has my wife more tolerant of my preps, she still has normalcy bias. Luckily my wife isn't as bad as the wife in 299 Days, as I don't have to hide my tactical skills/weapons and prepper pantry.. But lord help me if she finds out about that Conex container full of 5g buckets buried in our back yard...