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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I have been watching nCoV numbers. Saudi Arabia has been difficult to pin down in that their numbers don't jive with actual cases reported. We are seeing family clusters, and people of both genders and all ages. The count stands at roughly 120 cases of which roughly half died. Visibility was lost in mid May, so we really don't know much other than what they announce. A few cases were reported in Qatar. There are rumors which I don't feel are worth reporting, because we just don't know how credible they are, so I am not passing that on unless I think it is something I personally would react to.

The Saudis did not report a single case during Ramadan, but as soon as it ended, the reports of disease were released, in significant numbers. I believe there was an attempt to make it appear as though no cases occurred in that time.

My concerns remain the same. Traveling pilgrims could spread the disease. In addition, the amount of extreme social disruption in middle eastern countries, Egypt, Syria, etc resulting in refugee camps where this could really brew.

It has been a fairly slow spreader, but, each case gives it an opportunity to mutate. Nothing is pressing right now, just a slow steady spread in the Middle East. The city outside of the Middle East that is most at risk of problems from this is Mumbai India, because many of those people work in Saudi Arabia and travel between the two areas.

I suspect we will see a resurgence of H7N9 this Fall, in China.
 

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With the chance of increased refugee migration in the VERY near future this does indeed warrant following. The camps are a scary proposition with players in the game having already resorted to chemical weapons. The expansion to biological releases don't seem as far fetched as they once did.
 

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WHO | Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus ? update

Latest case was in the Guangdong province. Street vendors sell home grown food from little carts, and they pee in the streets there! Lord only knows what kind of diseases could come outta that place!

Years ago it was mad cow, swine flu, bird flu. Now we're pee'ving off countries who deal in chemical agents... Seems we're due something new and more exotic than ever if their going to successfully keep us in fear. "Beaver fever"? Oops! That's actually taken...
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
We are dealing with TWO diseases. nCoV is not a flu, it is SARS like. It is in the Middle East, mostly Saudi, but it does spread from human to human. It's a bit slow at it, but it appears to be faster than it used to be. This one scares me because social order has broken down in several Middle Eastern countries. When social order breaks down no one keeps track of disease. Refugee camps are terrible for any disease let alone some pandemic strain. Lots of people will be moving around due to warfare and then, we also have the Hajj coming up in October. Saudi was not honest about cases that appeared during Ramadan, unless there was a miracle and none occurred as they said. (Only to have a dozen or so announced within a week of it ending.) I just don't think that many of these countries have the diagnostic abilities, nor other structures to find sick people, diagnose them and follow contacts. If this should get into areas like Egypt and Syria, or their refugee camps, what a disaster!

H7N9 is an avian flu, so far, it has only been in China. It's been quiescent for while other than the recent case in Guangdong. The spread of this so far, has been mostly from the environment to human, mostly from the chicken or processing machinery to the human. If it did develop effective human to human transmission in addition to the bird to human, we would be screwed. It doesn't appear to make the birds sick. There have also been quite a few cases of H5N1 which is also a dangerous avian flu. So far, it doesn't spread human to human, but it could develop that in nature. They have done it in the lab already.

I have to admit, both of these disease have been slower to evolve than I first thought they would be, but, this is not untypical for how emerging disease develops.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
There has been a bit of an uptick in admitted cases of nCoV MERS in Saudi Arabia. Keep it on your radar.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
As of Sept. 7, 114 cases with 54 deaths worldwide to WHO . As of Sept. 11th, 16 additional cases in Saudi, which would be a total of 130 cases, with 57 deaths worldwide. The additional 16 cases have not been reported by WHO. Most of the cases in Saudi, many sporadic cases over a large geographic area.
 

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Saudi. Land of be careful which hand you shake! Because he wipes his butt on one of them!!! Along with the fact that they have pants they call "seven day shiters" for exactly the reason your thinking (it's acceptable to crap in your pants over there!). Unfortunately our government allowed me to experience these people in their natural habitat in person. Fortunately I was there to relieve the world of a few thousand of their existences.

I will say, watching their government do public executions by pushing people off a 100 foot tower with a 90 foot rope on their necks was interesting! O.O

Little wonder these people are a source of deadly diseases.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
65% of the personnel of the CDC have been furloughed. 33% of the TSA is furloughed. Several thousand pilgrims have arrived at the Hajj with 2 million expected. This is a bad time for prolonged government shutdown.
 
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