[IngaLisa]

The Saudis have curtailed the number of visas they will allow for Ramadan and the Hajj. They are telling people it may be better to come another year......due to construction?

We still have no credible count on the number of infections.

And don't forget, H7N9 isn't gone for good.

(If ya don't hear from me on here, I'm super busy right now with our homestead, but I am watching this. I just don't post every time the Saudis break wind.)

 

[IngaLisa]

Not much new to report. Figures are still mounting but, it has been very difficult to get an accurate count. This is interesting tho.

As Virus Spreads, Saudi Arabia Restricts Pilgrimage Numbers - Middle East Real Time - WSJ

 

[IngaLisa]

Oh, I haven't been posting much because this is my super busy time on our little farm. The workload is crazy and I'm out from dawn to dusk unless it's raining or ungodly hot. I do check the pandemic scene every AM and PM and will report anything significant.

We added rabbits to our animals, and I ended up with a huge hatch of chicks, which was unexpected, (I didn't figure all those eggs were fertile and would hatch) and with all the rain my garden is on overdrive. We have had 10" more rain than average. Last year we had terrible drought. Roads are flooded and fields washed out. We are fine here tho. My garden isn't a garden, and it isn't a farm...it's in between, so it's big and it's weedy, so there is always more work than daylight and energy. Working in the garden means working in wet muck. No rest for the weary and no time to sit and chat with friends online or even in person!

 

[retired guard]

Oh, I haven't been posting much because this is my super busy time on our little farm. The workload is crazy and I'm out from dawn to dusk unless it's raining or ungodly hot. I do check the pandemic scene every AM and PM and will report anything significant.

We added rabbits to our animals, and I ended up with a huge hatch of chicks, which was unexpected, (I didn't figure all those eggs were fertile and would hatch) and with all the rain my garden is on overdrive. We have had 10" more rain than average. Last year we had terrible drought. Roads are flooded and fields washed out. We are fine here tho. My garden isn't a garden, and it isn't a farm...it's in between, so it's big and it's weedy, so there is always more work than daylight and energy. Working in the garden means working in wet muck. No rest for the weary and no time to sit and chat with friends online or even in person!

Glad to here your efforts are bearing good fruit and love reading your posts just don't forget to take care of you.

 

[PalmettoTree]

This is a human engineered mutation of a strain being tested in the Middle East (country is still not verified) for biological warfare. Someone in the lab decided to be a suicide biological bomb.

 

[PaulS]

Do you have evidence of the engineering and "suicide biological" bomber or is this just your considered opinion?

 

[PalmettoTree]

I'm not in the evidence business. I'm just passing on from what I consider to be a reliable source. Just disregard it until you say to your self that you read it here first. If contained it will not matter. If it is not container it still will not matter.

 

[miho]

I read about the virus being man made just don't remember where i.read. it.

 

[IngaLisa]

There is no evidence that this is biowarfare. The H5N1 virus was tinkered with in the lab, but that was also not a biowarfare thing, more likely it was aimed at profits. nCoV appears to have had its origin in the UAE and Qatar. There is some thought that nCoV may have originated in camels, and made the jump to humans from them. It made its appearance shortly after the Hajj in 2012.

There are several reasons to up the concern level on nCoV right now. One is the possible breakdown of government in Egypt, not to mention mass gatherings of hundreds of thousands of people. Syria is a mess with refugees all over. There is reason to believe it is more widespread in Saudi than they are admitting, and it isn't just in Saudi. We just can't get reliable statistics on this disease. We do get news releases of odd incidents such as mass closings of schools etc. in several Middle Eastern countries. It's likely at this point that many have travelled to Mecca already, given Ramadan starts in a week.

They are testing a first possible case in Hong Kong. We don't have the results yet. A man who went to Tunisia and Dubai, and went camel riding. Apparently he is in the hospital in Hong Kong and they are awaiting tests. Testing for nCoV is difficult and often nasal swabbing isn't sufficient. It requires bronchoalveolar lavage, and that is quiet an invasive procedure.

I'm not sure how well they can contain this disease any more. But with the social unrest and then the Hajj, it seems to me, it could be a lot more difficult in a few months. On the good side, it seems to take more than casual contact of a few minutes to spread it (so far). I doubt we will get any more transparency from these highly controlled secretive countries. Watching this virus is mostly watching for when it escapes.

 

[Rigged for Quiet]

My concern, given the regional focus, is an outbreak in a refugee camp. Thousands of people, living in less than sanitary close quarters, with likely weakend immune systems. Sounds like an incubator waiting to happen.

 

[roy]

During the haaj there are million of Musims from all over the world living in "refugee camps" around Mecca.

 

[IngaLisa]

The number of visitors to Mecca from all over the world could be very troublesome. These people will all be flying home to places all over the globe. The other issue I see is the general deterioration of social order in the region, not specifically Saudi but Syria, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq etc. I don't think there are public health systems in place to even identify cases let alone treat them or quarantine them. We just know so little about this disease. As of now, it appears to be a fairly slow spreader, but as I said before, it has been very difficult to get statistics from the region and I don't expect that to change.

The latest on the disease is that a Swiss businessman is ill and in the hospital in Switzerland after travelling extensively in Saudi Arabia. His disease is not yet laboratory confirmed.

I have said before, I believe that there is more of this disease around than we know, which means people are surviving it without intervention, which means ultimately that the death rate is lower than the 60% rate we see. I would expect to see a drop in the case fatality rate as this spreads. That said, it is still a very dangerous disease and the lack of transparency on the part of Saudi Arabia is frustrating. There seems to be a distinct reticence to admit that this isn't a situation that they can 'control'. There is just too much we do not know about this disease. There is no vaccine. There is no drug to treat this. That in itself is scary.

 

[IngaLisa]

Six new cases of nCoV reported yesterday, 4 of them in health care workers being monitored after exposure to a patient in the United Arab Emirates, 2 cases in Saudi Arabia.

WHO is reluctant to call it a World Health Emergency, but their reasons for this strain credulity. In the mean time, millions flock to Saudi Arabia to do their religious duty and the powers that be, figure that is worth the risk to the world population.

 

[Rigged for Quiet]

I read in the last day or two that they are now urging the elderly and the very young to not make the pligramige this year due to the outbreak. I was surprised by the article.

 

[PaulS]

A little off topic but I just got back from taking my wife to the doctor and saw a poster that states we are in the middle of a Whooping cough epidemic! ??? WTF? Really - an epidemic and I had to go to the doctor's office to find out?

Is this for real or are they just pushing vaccinations?

 

[IngaLisa]

We are seeing a resurgence of Whooping Cough, or Pertussis. The vaccine we got as children needs a booster every 10 years, I believe. So, adults who thought they were immunized, actually are spreading the Pertussis germ to infants who have not been vaccinated yet (mostly children under age 8 weeks.) So, yes, we are seeing MORE Pertussis. I did get the vaccine designed for adults. It is being put back in the Diptheria-Tetanus shot we get every 10 years as a booster, or you can just get a Pertussis vaccine single.