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Discussion Starter · #21 ·
Back to novel coronavirus. I posted an update on some of the other threads on viruses. This is one to watch, especially as we go into the Fall. It's a slow spreader for now, but, it bears watching. It's human to human transmission. The man who got it in Saudi and came home to France, gave it to his hospital room mate. There are several other clusters where health professionals got it from patients.

Millions of pilgrims will descend on Saudi from July to October, and return home to points all over the globe, as of now, no travel advisories are in effect, other than the one the Russians put out. Russia is advising its citizens to avoid travel to the Arabian Peninsula except when absolutely essential.
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
Here is an example of my dilemma when reporting on this stuff. Today a report came in that Jordan sent off 124 samples for testing for nCoV because they SUSPECT that these could be cases of nCoV. Many times, we never receive a follow up on this information. It could take weeks to get more information. If Jordan truly does have 124 cases of nCoV, it's not good.

Keep in mind a lot of people keel over in many of these countries without ever seeing a doctor. There are refugee camps all over the Middle East. We have numerous countries in total disarray, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq. Keep in mind we have troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. We have very secretive regimes, Iran, Saudi. We have poverty stricken places like Yemen. Egypt is still a mess. Jordan is trying to deal with refugees. Think of the number of Palestinians who have no real home. Who keeps track of them? Lebanon isn't in good shape either. So, if a pandemic hits there, there just isn't the infrastructure in terms of government to control it.

Again, I don't think that nCoV will have as high of a case fatality rate as it does right now, because we are not hearing about those that have a hell of a 'cold' for 3 weeks and recover (I am sure that happens.)

If you gave me a choice which germ, nCoV or H7N9 to pick as a worse scenario, H7N9 is the worse scenario, because it infects at least birds, with no symptoms. If it got into the wild bird population across the globe, AND also did human to human, it would be very, very bad. We have had little success making H7 vaccines that work on humans. That said, nCoV is CURRENTLY transmissible human to human, and can develop into an even better spreader, spreading much like a common cold. We haven't had any luck with vaccines against coronavirus. :/

There are many emerging diseases, that are flaring at all times all over the world. H5N1 has claimed many more lives than either of the two we are watching closely. So far, it seems to be only avian to human. So far.

I'm trying to pass on credible information. I know some people spend their last dime on prepping. I don't want to predict Armageddon. I'm not Nostradamus. I just watch trends and I know a bit about disease.
 

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Discussion Starter · #23 · (Edited)
I think it would be good if the admin could combine my threads on the novel corona virus and H7N9 into one area or something. I never know which one to post in.

So, there is news on nCoV, Novel Coronavirus otherwise known as MERS or Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome.

A 45 year old man in Italy has been diagnosed. He was recently in Jordan for a month, where he says his son had a 'flu like illness.'

Also, the Saudis are saying, that nCoV is ALL over the world, and the only reason it isn't being discovered it, that only the Saudis are testing. That actually may be somewhat true. If you went to the ER with flu like symptoms, I doubt you or I would be tested. If you told them you traveled then maybe they would test you.

Two years ago, I went to the ER with pneumonia. I KNEW I had pneumonia. They took an xray and I had infiltrates in my lungs, but they didn't think it looked like pneumonia. They gave me a pack of zith, and two days later, I still had a fever and couldn't breathe. I went back and they told me it wasn't pneumonia, but they gave me Keflex this time, and that worked. So, I had to go back and get a chest xray to make sure I was OK. So two weeks later I went back and the infiltrates were gone......and so was my 'pneumonia'. The message on my answering machine said, your 'pneumonia has resolved'..... "But wait! I thought it wasn't pneumonia?" They told me, "What does it matter, you are better now?"

So how many people worldwide go in to the ER with something, that never gets diagnosed? How many die on the streets because they are old and poor, or young and poor and don't matter to any one? I suspect that nCoV is all over the place too. I suspect a lot of people DO survive it, but, had a hell of bad cold for 3 weeks and maybe wished they were dead. I suspect a lot of others are diagnosed with pneumonia or some other generic disease. On the upside, if there is more of it around than we think, it means that the case fatality rate is lower. On the downside, it is mutating. If you happen to have any chronic disease or immune suppression due to taking chemo or drugs for diseases like asthma, Lupus, etc. nCoV could be your death knell. Maybe if you are a young adult, it may not hit you as hard. I don't know. We just don't know enough about this bug.
 

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Discussion Starter · #25 · (Edited)
So, the Italian guy (of Palestinian descent), who went to Jordan to visit his son, and came back with nCoV, also gave it to his 2 year old niece and to a coworker. So the Italian cluster is now up to 3. I would say, this stuff has a way of getting around pretty well. I am wondering if they are tracking down the people who rode on the airplane with the guy.

Also, the infected coworker is a fellow hotel employee....so both of the infected men are hotel employees. It didn't say what their occupation was, only that they worked in a hotel, so any guests could have been exposed and long gone by now....on airplanes, buses, boats, whatever.

There is some arrogant doctor on a Reuter's news video saying that people get this from animals and that there has been no human to human transmission. Yeah, right.

The deal on this germ as far as I can see, is this. It spreads human to human. It probably takes more contact than a quick one time encounter, but, I would think sharing an airplane, bus, or train car for several hours would qualify for close contact and thereby increase the chances of catching this more than just having some one with it pass by on the sidewalk.

I think some of nCoV is flying under the radar, unless the person gets extremely ill.

I think the case mortality rate won't be as high at 50-60% but, if you have pre-existing disease, are under 3 or over 50, you have a higher risk of dying if you get it. It isn't treatable with antivirals or antibiotics. I am not sure if they are using IVIG or interferons or what. I think most of the care is supportive care. It requires ventilators and ECMO.

It may be just my perception, but, from what I am picking up from reading a variety of reports, it seems to me, it is a bit more transmissible than first thought. It has a longer incubation than first thought. It would seem advisable to me, to err on the side of caution and maybe do as Russia did and limit travel to only essential travel to the Middle East.....just sayin'.....
 

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Thanks for the update.

If it were to be "really bad" and "pandemic" like I wonder how long the governments of the world will see fit to lie about it?
I mean I get it - if they didn't lie about it they'd probably cause a great harm with the panic attack many would go thru,
but its something I wonder about.
 

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What can take out a prepper is: bad skin infections likely from injuries, tooth abscess, bladder infections that go up to the kidney, pneumonias, uterine infections after childbirth. Anything less obvious, we won't have the ability to diagnose because we won't have laboratories or imaging. We will have thermometers.

You won't be eating these precious resources for ear infections or sinus infections. There will also be fungal infections, which are far more difficult to treat.

I also suggest adding lice treatment to your supplies. You can buy that at a store. I also have a very nasty bed bug killer, which I have never used because it's toxic, but, if things get really bad and you are being eaten alive, you may consider fumigating your bed and couch.

I suggest keeping ketoconazole shampoo, in case you get skin fungal infection you can use this to wash your body in. Also get fungal treatments for skin and nails. Miconazole for women for yeast. (Also works for men for general fungal.) After you use antibiotics, you are likely to get fungal.
So medical issues is one of the top concerns in my book. When you mentioned tooth abscess **** it brought back some terrible memories. A few years back when I was in a crappy relationship, and everything felt like crap, I let myself tank. I drank 6 or 7 cans of soda a day, I was fat as shit, and etc etc... ugh. Even after changing all these things, and doing all I am supposed to it has cost me several thousands to fix my teeth after the acid from the soda ate way the enamel and caused cavities. Most of them were all small and such and they are all taken care of now thankfully. But I had one of my wisdom teeth abscess. I have been shot, I have been stabbed, and given the choice between the three, shoot me or stab me please before ever subjecting me to the incredible terrible pain of a severe abscess. It will bring you to your knees, and put you in a world of hurt, you will cry and wish you were dead, especially when it is severe.

Have had athletes foot before, one of the nasty side effects isn't the itch or burning it is the blisters depending on the variety you get. Blisters are bad news, especially when hiking, and increases your risk for other infections. I keep a variety and supply of blister treatment, and fungal treatments as well as dental products to help keep shit healthy. I never ever ever want to be caught in a survival situation with blisters, infection, or an abscessed tooth.
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
I ended up having to have a tooth pulled and I got a dry socket. I can tell ya, a dry socket is a miserable experience.

They make a 'toothache' kit. It has an oil in it that tastes like really crappy cloves. It DOES work to relieve the pain a bit. You put it right on the dry socket or bad tooth and it deadens the nerve. If you have a tooth issue and no antibiotics, it can kill you, and miserably. Without antibiotics, you can die from a rotten abscessed tooth.

It pays to take really good care of your teeth. It's important to floss. Some folks like me, just got a bad genetic deck of cards. It pays to take as good care of your teeth as you can afford right now, so if SHTF you can go without dental care for a while.

If nCoV does bolt worldwide, it will require people isolate themselves to not be infected. My sources can no longer get statistics from Saudi Arabia. Like I said, it appears this is a bigger problem than any one in the Arabian Peninsula is ready to admit, or can effectively deal with. I hope our military is on this issue. I don't like seeing our troops exposed to this.
 

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Discussion Starter · #29 ·
For any one interested in this stuff, the movie Contagion is on HBO-W right now. It's drama, with some truth to it. May be an interesting watch. I don't know, I have never seen it. I've seen a few of these pandemic type movies. We will see how factual this one is.
 

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Discussion Starter · #30 ·
Another update. They are attempting to use Ribavirin and Interferon to treat nCoV. This is the same regimen as used for Hep C. Thus far, you can see the mortality rate, even with treatment. The treatment is very difficult, not unlike chemo. It's very hard on people. It has severe side effects that a compromised person may just not be able to handle and we don't really know if it works. It's probable we don't have enough of the drugs as well.

Then to make matters worse, the virus mutates rapidly, making treatment more difficult.

It's worth keeping on your radar.
 

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Discussion Starter · #33 ·
The 3 cases in Italy are a man who went to Saudi and came back with it, giving it to his 2 year old niece and a female coworker in the hotel industry. Thus far, they have notified and tested 23 individual contacts of these people.

So far, every case has its origin in the countries of the Arabian peninsula. Every case has eventually been traced back to Saudi, UAE, Qatar, or Jordan. THIS is where this started, but, it won't stay that way. The Italian and the Brit both gave it to family members. At some point the circle will widen. I think it takes a specific viral load to catch this. Either you spend time with the person or have them sneeze or cough right in your face, or you pick it up from other bodily secretions. I am not sure it can be picked up from surfaces as well. No one has established that. Given it isn't spreading like wildfire, I suspect you need a substantial viral load to catch it. Eventually, the germ will mutate so such a large load isn't needed, or it will burn itself out. My concern is the upcoming season for pilgrimages to occur and the large number of people traveling to Mecca and other sites. It is a recipe for disaster that doesn't seem to be being taken seriously. Each time this germ infects a person, it learns more about us as a host. One of these days it is going to mutate, and be more effective in terms of spreading. It's already an effective killer. The thing is, being an effective killer is not so good, because then the virus doesn't replicate itself.....being an effective spreader is more conducive to replication. The germ is programmed to spread itself, like a computer virus. It wants to spread. So, it is programed by nature to seek this genetic mutation, to become a better spreader. (As I said, often times a germ may sacrifice lethality for the ability to spread.) If as the WHO states, this is a risk to all of mankind, why are we not recommending essential travel only to the Middle East? Russia is the only country recommending this.
 

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Discussion Starter · #34 · (Edited)
Twelve people have tested positive in Italy. I assume this is in addition to the 2 we already know of from the index case, 45 year old male with recent travel history to Saudi. None of the 12 have symptoms. The Italian government has decided not to quarantine them, which, at this point could be a mistake they regret. Then again, if it is transmitting that aggressively, it is likely all over the map at this point. We really have no handle on how fast this spreads, what the fatality rate actually is, nor what the incubation period is (time from exposure to the time one is sick or seropositive.)

What a mess.

Before any one panics, let me say this; We have to wait for more data. We need to see if any of these 12 develop disease. If that happens we know more or less, what the incubation period is. We need to assess if any of these people shed virus, making them contagious to others, even though they are not sick. (Asymptomatic carriers as in Typhoid Mary). We will have to see what percentage of seropositive people die, and how many survive. This will give us the case fatality rate. ALL of these are unknown right now.

We know they tested 50 contacts of the 3 people who got the disease in Italy, the 45 year old man, his female coworker from the hotel, and his 2 year old niece. It does not appear they tested any one on the airplane with him on his way back from Saudi. The index case, the 45 year old man, stated his son in Jordan was ill with the 'flu' while he was there, so this actually probably came rom Jordan, not Saudi. He gave it to the 2 other people and between the 3 of them infected at least 12 others, who are not yet showing symptoms. They may not get sick, or they may. This cluster will tell us a lot about the disease.

If you have health issues, mainly stuff like being on steroids or chemo, anything that immunosuppresses you, you could be more vulnerable to this disease. It has killed mostly people with pre-existing health issues, but, to be honest, we have gotten very little information from any of the Middle East countries regarding this illness. They just are not equipped to diagnose this. I wonder if we are any better prepared?
 

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Discussion Starter · #35 ·
So today, it appears the Italian government is saying, these 12 people tested negative upon a secondary test, leaving us with just the 3 cases and a whole lot of wonder if they even have a clue what they are doing. I'm was a bit skeptical when I saw they just did throat swabs....nCoV hasn't been easy to find with throat swabs and usually requires bronchoalveolar lavage to get a sample.

So, I don't know what information we will get from this cluster either.
 

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While true we do get something in return. Our dollar remains the world's reserve currency (big) and we get low cost energy (also big). If I were to give our present dictator any credit it would be for not intefering with the drilling and oil production in the North Dakota territory and even in Texas. I'm elated at how much production the US has developed in the last 5 years. A fan of ofailure was touting this as a big success for him; to which I replied it was all started (on paper) long before ofailure took office - but I do give him credit for not stopping it. While it would still hurt if we lost our imported cheap oil its no longer impossible for us to meet our own needs. I dare say if the House of Saud cut us off tomorrow (more likely the people will cut them off) we'd certainly hurt big time but within 24 months we could meet our own needs. (Might have to shoot a few lawyers first - jk).

Sorry way off topic,

It is intriguing how the governments of the world don't like to talk about pandemic potentials much.

Our policies towards the house of Saud seem to be put us and a lot of others in jeopardy. Thanks for the updates.
 
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