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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Well, it appears Saudi Arabia was a bit less than honest. Surprise, surprise.

There has been a slight resurgence in Novel Coronavirus in the Middle East with 13 cases reported in May in Saudi.

I'm watching this. A woman who returned to France from the United Arab Emirates also had it and got sick in France. I also saw a case in Germany, same thing, person traveled to the Middle East.

This is a bad virus. If this IS going human to human, depending on how well it transmits, we could be looking at a nasty epidemic, but, so far, it hasn't convinced me of anything.

H7N9? We are not getting accurate stats. It's going to be with us in one form or another for a long time. H5N1 is resurging in some areas where it is seen the most, Laos, Cambodia etc. It's also very dangerous.

On the IngaLisa scale of alert. ;) I would say we are a Green. Blue-Green-Yellow-Orange-Red. Red being get your but in the bunker and load the cannons.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
A bit clearer update. It was a male, not a female, age 65, who went to Dubai on a 'package sightseeing tour'. He would not have had much contact with people there, no animal contact. Sounds like an incidental contact case. Upon returning to France, he became ill. This kind of case, raises the level of concern a bit.

Novel Coronavirus, or nCoV, is a SARS like disease. It spreads like the common cold, but so far, has been less contagious than a common cold, which is good. It has a high mortality rate and those that do survive, like H7N9 require extensive medical care.

Please excuse the errors, because the reports often come to me via a 'machine translator', and things don't often translate well from language to language, and often times, they are very unclear at first.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
The level of concern may be rising on nCoV. The 65 year old man was apparently hospitalized in a room with a roommate. That roommate is apparently now ill with symptoms that resemble nCoV, AND the doctor that treated the 65 year old man is also hospitalized with similar symptoms. We won't know the test results for a while. If they should be nCoV, that would indicate some pretty substantial human to human spread. I will keep you posted. My thoughts are, if it is nCoV and it spread this fast in France, I can't imagine that it isn't running rampant in the many secretive kingdoms of the Middle East, some of them, rife with poverty.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
40 worldwide cases have been recorded, with 20 deaths. It was announced today that 2 health care workers in Saudi Arabia were the latest victims. This announcement certainly confirms human to human spread, without prolonged contact.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
News from Saudi has been very difficult to get. It's my belief based on past patterns and emerging trends, that this continues to spread, and has gone to human to human. There is some panic in Saudi Arabia. A 10 year old has recently died from the disease. It is hitting some health care workers. Saudi Arabia is not likely to be very transparent with the data. It's been relatively silent since 5/12. I imagine they will release some data here and there, and I can't say that I trust it will be accurate.

There is also some confusion as to what this disease is called. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome is one name. SARS like illness is another. I wish they had stuck with a name like Coronavirus and a number, because this just makes it all the more confusing.

This virus has developed human to human, unlike H7N9 avian flu, which didn't really show us it had that capacity. H7N9 IS in the position to develop H2H transmission over time, as is H5N1. All THREE of these diseases present a pandemic potential. All THREE have a high case fatality rate and require a good deal of care to survive. With nCoV, there will be no vaccine because coronavirus doesn't lend itself to vaccine. Avian flu vaccine could be developed but H7 vaccine attempts in the past have failed in humans. H5N1 vaccine would not be available in amounts great enough to mitigate a pandemic.

Keep in mind, an isolation plan in your prep planning.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 · (Edited)
I have gotten very little news. I know 2 health care workers caught it. I know a 10 year old child died from it. My sources have gotten no word since 5/12. Also China deleted the account of one blogger who was tweeting on H7N9. These are not transparent countries.

Consider, 2 million will travel to Saudi Arabia over Ramadan. July 8th. You may want to avoid airports.

nCoV will not respond to antibiotics. It's a coronavirus. Yes, you can use the antibiotics for secondary infection, but, the coronavirus on its own, is fatal 50% of the time at this point, even with extreme health care measures. I DO recommend the full spectrum of antibiotics for preppers. Also consider buying a hard copy of a PDR. Also consider having pediatric doses on hand.

You must isolate to insure that you do not catch this if and when it bolts.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Antibiotic will NOT work against any influenza, avian influenza, or coronavirus. Period.

They will work to prevent secondary bacterial pneumonia, but, given the cytokine storm these viruses produce, that will do you little good. It's a long shot. If I had a sick family member, being cared for in total isolation, I would give them antibiotics if I had them, depending on symptoms.

nCoV IS DEFINITELY circulating human to human. H7N9 and H5N1 have yet proven to be human to human. We don't have data because SA hasn't been forthcoming regarding nCoV and the trickle we were getting has stopped. They are a secretive kingdom.

Our sources regarding Saudi Arabia are mum. What we are getting out of machine translated reports are that there is concern and some panic in the populace, which to me, means folks are getting sick and they are not getting answers from their government. I saw a notice on 'mortuary practices regarding nCoV. We have seen notices of school events being cancelled. These are governments that are capable of shutting down the internet and twitter services. Unlike China, where we got some leaks, there is nothing here. Keep in mind ten Chinese bloggers went to prison for blogging about H7N9. There are also attempt to crash my source's site daily. It goes down often.

You have to understand that businesses are rushing to get 'patents' for these viruses. There it money in patenting DNA. There is huge money to be made or lost in vaccine manufacture as well.

***nCoV will NOT have a vaccine. It's a coronavirus. We can NOT make a vaccine that will work.
Antibiotics will NOT work.
I can't say right now, what antivirals will work, but likely, we have none.
Current CFR is at 50%

**H7N9will NOT have a vaccine. H7 vaccines have been attempted in man and failed to get a human immune response.
Antibiotics will NOT work.
Thus far it does respond to Tamiflu and Relenza, but that doesn't mean if you get these drugs you are home free. You may have a chance.
Current CFR is at 30+%

*H5N1DOES have a vaccine, but the vaccine requires a large dose of the drug and it takes 2 doses set apart. We do not and can not make enough to mitigate a pandemic.
Thus far, it responds to Tamiflu and Relenza.
Current CFR is similar to H7N9 at roughly 30+%

I think, it is reasonable to have some antibiotics in your prep supplies. Veterinary antibiotics of certain types will do. I have them. I am also a knowledgeable health care professional. If you don't know what you are doing, they won't help you and could do more harm than good. If you don't have a medical person, such as a registered nurse, pharmacist or doctor in your circle, I suggest thinking about networking.

I strongly suggest having a hard copy professional drug book such as a PDR. The net could go down, then what? You need hard copy books.

There is NOTHING that would stop a devastating pandemic if either of these 3 viruses decides to bolt. nCoV has made the jump to human to human. Two nurses in Saudi caught it from a patient. A hospital room mate of a patient infected with nCoV in France got it. The first cluster in Britain brought it home to 3 of his family members. There are other clusters.

With H7N9 it is less certain, but, it is poised to become human to human. It has more genes directing it that way then does H5N1. That said, some dope in China crossed H5N1 with H1N1 making a hybrid flu that is supposedly locked up in the lab. (Like I feel safe about this. It is also here in the US locked up.) H5N1 on it's own is bad. H1N1 has been the worst flu to strike in 50 years.....why you would cross the two is beyond me. Any of these flus can share DNA, in nature and that is scary enough.

So, don't stockpile antibiotics to try to treat ANY of these diseases. If you feel you want some around (and I do) then get a reasonable selection of antibiotics that target a variety infections. Keep in mind, every antibiotic will not cure every bacterial infection. You have to have some idea of what you are treating. In a primitive world this will hinge on what medical knowledge you have. There are aerobic, anaerobic, gram positive, gram negative bacteria. You can't combine some antibiotics either. They can be toxic to the liver, to the kidneys and to the nervous system. They can produce Clostridium Difficile in your gut and that can kill you over time. Some antibiotics cause cardiac arrhythmias. Don't go relying on just swallowing a bottle of this. You need a knowledgeable medical person or you can get yourself sick.

What can take out a prepper is: bad skin infections likely from injuries, tooth abscess, bladder infections that go up to the kidney, pneumonias, uterine infections after childbirth. Anything less obvious, we won't have the ability to diagnose because we won't have laboratories or imaging. We will have thermometers.

You won't be eating these precious resources for ear infections or sinus infections. There will also be fungal infections, which are far more difficult to treat.

I also suggest adding lice treatment to your supplies. You can buy that at a store. I also have a very nasty bed bug killer, which I have never used because it's toxic, but, if things get really bad and you are being eaten alive, you may consider fumigating your bed and couch.

I suggest keeping ketoconazole shampoo, in case you get skin fungal infection you can use this to wash your body in. Also get fungal treatments for skin and nails. Miconazole for women for yeast. (Also works for men for general fungal.) After you use antibiotics, you are likely to get fungal.

It would not be a bad idea to keep pro-biotics around to repopulate your intestinal flora.

Unless you plan on having new little ones during this siege, it may pay to have condoms on hand too. I'm beyond that phase in my life, but, I have a lot of feisty young people, in my circle. I doubt that they are thinking about contraception in a crisis right now. My nightmare is a problem obstetrical case. Historically 1 out of 100 childbirths caused a maternal death. Historically 1 out of 5 births did not survive the first year. Antibiotics and immunization has mitigated this. Currently 25%-30% of births are via C-section, likely many of those unnecessary, but it's a scary thought.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Yes, but human existence is but a blip in a universe that measures time in eons. Our planet has never had 7+ billion souls on it, either, moving rapidly about the globe.

No, a virus will likely not kill us all, but either of these three could thin the planet significantly.
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Well, for those of you who may be planning a pilgrimage to the Middle East for Ramadan (July 8-Aug 7) or the Haj in October, you may want to reconsider. I am sure many of you have this on your agenda. (snark).

From the dribs and drabs of info I am getting, nCoV is spreading. Saudi Arabia is not a member of WHO. WHO says nCoV is spreading and the Saudis need to get a handle on it. The Saudis have said they have no intention of limiting travel. Plus there was a dispute over who got the virus samples to study, because, DNA is apparently able to be 'owned' and therefore the profits from such a discovery. The 'sleeper' nCoV appears to be a bit more social than we expected. It's not spreading as fast as the common cold (yet) and likely it won't, but, it's definitely going human to human, and evidently without prolonged contact.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Something ODD is going on in Alabama. I can't tell you much.

SEVEN people have been hospitalized with an upper respiratory illness and 2 have died, 1 is in intensive care. They span all ages. They are not related. They live in a 10 county area in SE AL. Several had a 'flu like illness' prior or concomitantly.

At this point, there is NO connection to nCoV or any avian flu that I know of, but, I don't know much. I don't think any one knows much but I am sure the CDC is on it. I don't know the travel history of these people. It could be a resurgence of H1N1? It could be something all together different.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
One patient that died, was positive for H1N1 the 2009 pandemic strain. (Yes it is still around and killing people.) Another death has no information available. I am not sure if testing for influenza or coronavirus was done. A third patient still alive, has a strain of seasonal influenza A H3, more specifics are not known. 7 total were hospitalized in the last month, 2 died, 1 remains in intensive care. It's totally possible that these are people with co-morbid conditions.

It appears this is a blip, a fluke type occurrence of unrelated influenza type disease, but the CDC is watching it.
 

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Discussion Starter · #21 ·
Back to novel coronavirus. I posted an update on some of the other threads on viruses. This is one to watch, especially as we go into the Fall. It's a slow spreader for now, but, it bears watching. It's human to human transmission. The man who got it in Saudi and came home to France, gave it to his hospital room mate. There are several other clusters where health professionals got it from patients.

Millions of pilgrims will descend on Saudi from July to October, and return home to points all over the globe, as of now, no travel advisories are in effect, other than the one the Russians put out. Russia is advising its citizens to avoid travel to the Arabian Peninsula except when absolutely essential.
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
Here is an example of my dilemma when reporting on this stuff. Today a report came in that Jordan sent off 124 samples for testing for nCoV because they SUSPECT that these could be cases of nCoV. Many times, we never receive a follow up on this information. It could take weeks to get more information. If Jordan truly does have 124 cases of nCoV, it's not good.

Keep in mind a lot of people keel over in many of these countries without ever seeing a doctor. There are refugee camps all over the Middle East. We have numerous countries in total disarray, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq. Keep in mind we have troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. We have very secretive regimes, Iran, Saudi. We have poverty stricken places like Yemen. Egypt is still a mess. Jordan is trying to deal with refugees. Think of the number of Palestinians who have no real home. Who keeps track of them? Lebanon isn't in good shape either. So, if a pandemic hits there, there just isn't the infrastructure in terms of government to control it.

Again, I don't think that nCoV will have as high of a case fatality rate as it does right now, because we are not hearing about those that have a hell of a 'cold' for 3 weeks and recover (I am sure that happens.)

If you gave me a choice which germ, nCoV or H7N9 to pick as a worse scenario, H7N9 is the worse scenario, because it infects at least birds, with no symptoms. If it got into the wild bird population across the globe, AND also did human to human, it would be very, very bad. We have had little success making H7 vaccines that work on humans. That said, nCoV is CURRENTLY transmissible human to human, and can develop into an even better spreader, spreading much like a common cold. We haven't had any luck with vaccines against coronavirus. :/

There are many emerging diseases, that are flaring at all times all over the world. H5N1 has claimed many more lives than either of the two we are watching closely. So far, it seems to be only avian to human. So far.

I'm trying to pass on credible information. I know some people spend their last dime on prepping. I don't want to predict Armageddon. I'm not Nostradamus. I just watch trends and I know a bit about disease.
 

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Discussion Starter · #23 · (Edited)
I think it would be good if the admin could combine my threads on the novel corona virus and H7N9 into one area or something. I never know which one to post in.

So, there is news on nCoV, Novel Coronavirus otherwise known as MERS or Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome.

A 45 year old man in Italy has been diagnosed. He was recently in Jordan for a month, where he says his son had a 'flu like illness.'

Also, the Saudis are saying, that nCoV is ALL over the world, and the only reason it isn't being discovered it, that only the Saudis are testing. That actually may be somewhat true. If you went to the ER with flu like symptoms, I doubt you or I would be tested. If you told them you traveled then maybe they would test you.

Two years ago, I went to the ER with pneumonia. I KNEW I had pneumonia. They took an xray and I had infiltrates in my lungs, but they didn't think it looked like pneumonia. They gave me a pack of zith, and two days later, I still had a fever and couldn't breathe. I went back and they told me it wasn't pneumonia, but they gave me Keflex this time, and that worked. So, I had to go back and get a chest xray to make sure I was OK. So two weeks later I went back and the infiltrates were gone......and so was my 'pneumonia'. The message on my answering machine said, your 'pneumonia has resolved'..... "But wait! I thought it wasn't pneumonia?" They told me, "What does it matter, you are better now?"

So how many people worldwide go in to the ER with something, that never gets diagnosed? How many die on the streets because they are old and poor, or young and poor and don't matter to any one? I suspect that nCoV is all over the place too. I suspect a lot of people DO survive it, but, had a hell of bad cold for 3 weeks and maybe wished they were dead. I suspect a lot of others are diagnosed with pneumonia or some other generic disease. On the upside, if there is more of it around than we think, it means that the case fatality rate is lower. On the downside, it is mutating. If you happen to have any chronic disease or immune suppression due to taking chemo or drugs for diseases like asthma, Lupus, etc. nCoV could be your death knell. Maybe if you are a young adult, it may not hit you as hard. I don't know. We just don't know enough about this bug.
 

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Discussion Starter · #25 · (Edited)
So, the Italian guy (of Palestinian descent), who went to Jordan to visit his son, and came back with nCoV, also gave it to his 2 year old niece and to a coworker. So the Italian cluster is now up to 3. I would say, this stuff has a way of getting around pretty well. I am wondering if they are tracking down the people who rode on the airplane with the guy.

Also, the infected coworker is a fellow hotel employee....so both of the infected men are hotel employees. It didn't say what their occupation was, only that they worked in a hotel, so any guests could have been exposed and long gone by now....on airplanes, buses, boats, whatever.

There is some arrogant doctor on a Reuter's news video saying that people get this from animals and that there has been no human to human transmission. Yeah, right.

The deal on this germ as far as I can see, is this. It spreads human to human. It probably takes more contact than a quick one time encounter, but, I would think sharing an airplane, bus, or train car for several hours would qualify for close contact and thereby increase the chances of catching this more than just having some one with it pass by on the sidewalk.

I think some of nCoV is flying under the radar, unless the person gets extremely ill.

I think the case mortality rate won't be as high at 50-60% but, if you have pre-existing disease, are under 3 or over 50, you have a higher risk of dying if you get it. It isn't treatable with antivirals or antibiotics. I am not sure if they are using IVIG or interferons or what. I think most of the care is supportive care. It requires ventilators and ECMO.

It may be just my perception, but, from what I am picking up from reading a variety of reports, it seems to me, it is a bit more transmissible than first thought. It has a longer incubation than first thought. It would seem advisable to me, to err on the side of caution and maybe do as Russia did and limit travel to only essential travel to the Middle East.....just sayin'.....
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
I ended up having to have a tooth pulled and I got a dry socket. I can tell ya, a dry socket is a miserable experience.

They make a 'toothache' kit. It has an oil in it that tastes like really crappy cloves. It DOES work to relieve the pain a bit. You put it right on the dry socket or bad tooth and it deadens the nerve. If you have a tooth issue and no antibiotics, it can kill you, and miserably. Without antibiotics, you can die from a rotten abscessed tooth.

It pays to take really good care of your teeth. It's important to floss. Some folks like me, just got a bad genetic deck of cards. It pays to take as good care of your teeth as you can afford right now, so if SHTF you can go without dental care for a while.

If nCoV does bolt worldwide, it will require people isolate themselves to not be infected. My sources can no longer get statistics from Saudi Arabia. Like I said, it appears this is a bigger problem than any one in the Arabian Peninsula is ready to admit, or can effectively deal with. I hope our military is on this issue. I don't like seeing our troops exposed to this.
 

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Discussion Starter · #29 ·
For any one interested in this stuff, the movie Contagion is on HBO-W right now. It's drama, with some truth to it. May be an interesting watch. I don't know, I have never seen it. I've seen a few of these pandemic type movies. We will see how factual this one is.
 

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Discussion Starter · #30 ·
Another update. They are attempting to use Ribavirin and Interferon to treat nCoV. This is the same regimen as used for Hep C. Thus far, you can see the mortality rate, even with treatment. The treatment is very difficult, not unlike chemo. It's very hard on people. It has severe side effects that a compromised person may just not be able to handle and we don't really know if it works. It's probable we don't have enough of the drugs as well.

Then to make matters worse, the virus mutates rapidly, making treatment more difficult.

It's worth keeping on your radar.
 

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Discussion Starter · #33 ·
The 3 cases in Italy are a man who went to Saudi and came back with it, giving it to his 2 year old niece and a female coworker in the hotel industry. Thus far, they have notified and tested 23 individual contacts of these people.

So far, every case has its origin in the countries of the Arabian peninsula. Every case has eventually been traced back to Saudi, UAE, Qatar, or Jordan. THIS is where this started, but, it won't stay that way. The Italian and the Brit both gave it to family members. At some point the circle will widen. I think it takes a specific viral load to catch this. Either you spend time with the person or have them sneeze or cough right in your face, or you pick it up from other bodily secretions. I am not sure it can be picked up from surfaces as well. No one has established that. Given it isn't spreading like wildfire, I suspect you need a substantial viral load to catch it. Eventually, the germ will mutate so such a large load isn't needed, or it will burn itself out. My concern is the upcoming season for pilgrimages to occur and the large number of people traveling to Mecca and other sites. It is a recipe for disaster that doesn't seem to be being taken seriously. Each time this germ infects a person, it learns more about us as a host. One of these days it is going to mutate, and be more effective in terms of spreading. It's already an effective killer. The thing is, being an effective killer is not so good, because then the virus doesn't replicate itself.....being an effective spreader is more conducive to replication. The germ is programmed to spread itself, like a computer virus. It wants to spread. So, it is programed by nature to seek this genetic mutation, to become a better spreader. (As I said, often times a germ may sacrifice lethality for the ability to spread.) If as the WHO states, this is a risk to all of mankind, why are we not recommending essential travel only to the Middle East? Russia is the only country recommending this.
 

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Discussion Starter · #34 · (Edited)
Twelve people have tested positive in Italy. I assume this is in addition to the 2 we already know of from the index case, 45 year old male with recent travel history to Saudi. None of the 12 have symptoms. The Italian government has decided not to quarantine them, which, at this point could be a mistake they regret. Then again, if it is transmitting that aggressively, it is likely all over the map at this point. We really have no handle on how fast this spreads, what the fatality rate actually is, nor what the incubation period is (time from exposure to the time one is sick or seropositive.)

What a mess.

Before any one panics, let me say this; We have to wait for more data. We need to see if any of these 12 develop disease. If that happens we know more or less, what the incubation period is. We need to assess if any of these people shed virus, making them contagious to others, even though they are not sick. (Asymptomatic carriers as in Typhoid Mary). We will have to see what percentage of seropositive people die, and how many survive. This will give us the case fatality rate. ALL of these are unknown right now.

We know they tested 50 contacts of the 3 people who got the disease in Italy, the 45 year old man, his female coworker from the hotel, and his 2 year old niece. It does not appear they tested any one on the airplane with him on his way back from Saudi. The index case, the 45 year old man, stated his son in Jordan was ill with the 'flu' while he was there, so this actually probably came rom Jordan, not Saudi. He gave it to the 2 other people and between the 3 of them infected at least 12 others, who are not yet showing symptoms. They may not get sick, or they may. This cluster will tell us a lot about the disease.

If you have health issues, mainly stuff like being on steroids or chemo, anything that immunosuppresses you, you could be more vulnerable to this disease. It has killed mostly people with pre-existing health issues, but, to be honest, we have gotten very little information from any of the Middle East countries regarding this illness. They just are not equipped to diagnose this. I wonder if we are any better prepared?
 
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