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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Well, it appears Saudi Arabia was a bit less than honest. Surprise, surprise.

There has been a slight resurgence in Novel Coronavirus in the Middle East with 13 cases reported in May in Saudi.

I'm watching this. A woman who returned to France from the United Arab Emirates also had it and got sick in France. I also saw a case in Germany, same thing, person traveled to the Middle East.

This is a bad virus. If this IS going human to human, depending on how well it transmits, we could be looking at a nasty epidemic, but, so far, it hasn't convinced me of anything.

H7N9? We are not getting accurate stats. It's going to be with us in one form or another for a long time. H5N1 is resurging in some areas where it is seen the most, Laos, Cambodia etc. It's also very dangerous.

On the IngaLisa scale of alert. ;) I would say we are a Green. Blue-Green-Yellow-Orange-Red. Red being get your but in the bunker and load the cannons.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
A bit clearer update. It was a male, not a female, age 65, who went to Dubai on a 'package sightseeing tour'. He would not have had much contact with people there, no animal contact. Sounds like an incidental contact case. Upon returning to France, he became ill. This kind of case, raises the level of concern a bit.

Novel Coronavirus, or nCoV, is a SARS like disease. It spreads like the common cold, but so far, has been less contagious than a common cold, which is good. It has a high mortality rate and those that do survive, like H7N9 require extensive medical care.

Please excuse the errors, because the reports often come to me via a 'machine translator', and things don't often translate well from language to language, and often times, they are very unclear at first.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
The level of concern may be rising on nCoV. The 65 year old man was apparently hospitalized in a room with a roommate. That roommate is apparently now ill with symptoms that resemble nCoV, AND the doctor that treated the 65 year old man is also hospitalized with similar symptoms. We won't know the test results for a while. If they should be nCoV, that would indicate some pretty substantial human to human spread. I will keep you posted. My thoughts are, if it is nCoV and it spread this fast in France, I can't imagine that it isn't running rampant in the many secretive kingdoms of the Middle East, some of them, rife with poverty.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
40 worldwide cases have been recorded, with 20 deaths. It was announced today that 2 health care workers in Saudi Arabia were the latest victims. This announcement certainly confirms human to human spread, without prolonged contact.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
News from Saudi has been very difficult to get. It's my belief based on past patterns and emerging trends, that this continues to spread, and has gone to human to human. There is some panic in Saudi Arabia. A 10 year old has recently died from the disease. It is hitting some health care workers. Saudi Arabia is not likely to be very transparent with the data. It's been relatively silent since 5/12. I imagine they will release some data here and there, and I can't say that I trust it will be accurate.

There is also some confusion as to what this disease is called. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome is one name. SARS like illness is another. I wish they had stuck with a name like Coronavirus and a number, because this just makes it all the more confusing.

This virus has developed human to human, unlike H7N9 avian flu, which didn't really show us it had that capacity. H7N9 IS in the position to develop H2H transmission over time, as is H5N1. All THREE of these diseases present a pandemic potential. All THREE have a high case fatality rate and require a good deal of care to survive. With nCoV, there will be no vaccine because coronavirus doesn't lend itself to vaccine. Avian flu vaccine could be developed but H7 vaccine attempts in the past have failed in humans. H5N1 vaccine would not be available in amounts great enough to mitigate a pandemic.

Keep in mind, an isolation plan in your prep planning.
 

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I know that many of the Health Care workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign nationals Americans,Brits, etc. who have generous PTO packages where they leave the Kingdom any word on spread from these?
 

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Not a bad time to make sure you have a supply of Antibiotics. Remember the Anthrax scare wiped out the supply of Ciprofloxacin (Cipro).
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 · (Edited)
I have gotten very little news. I know 2 health care workers caught it. I know a 10 year old child died from it. My sources have gotten no word since 5/12. Also China deleted the account of one blogger who was tweeting on H7N9. These are not transparent countries.

Consider, 2 million will travel to Saudi Arabia over Ramadan. July 8th. You may want to avoid airports.

nCoV will not respond to antibiotics. It's a coronavirus. Yes, you can use the antibiotics for secondary infection, but, the coronavirus on its own, is fatal 50% of the time at this point, even with extreme health care measures. I DO recommend the full spectrum of antibiotics for preppers. Also consider buying a hard copy of a PDR. Also consider having pediatric doses on hand.

You must isolate to insure that you do not catch this if and when it bolts.
 

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If SHTF drugs like antibiotics may just be the ultimate barter item. How much would someone be willing to give up for some antibiotics if a family member or yourself became sick.
 

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I keep reading mixed reports.some say its confirmed that its spreading human to human others say it might spread.i feel like they're not telling us the whole truth.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Antibiotic will NOT work against any influenza, avian influenza, or coronavirus. Period.

They will work to prevent secondary bacterial pneumonia, but, given the cytokine storm these viruses produce, that will do you little good. It's a long shot. If I had a sick family member, being cared for in total isolation, I would give them antibiotics if I had them, depending on symptoms.

nCoV IS DEFINITELY circulating human to human. H7N9 and H5N1 have yet proven to be human to human. We don't have data because SA hasn't been forthcoming regarding nCoV and the trickle we were getting has stopped. They are a secretive kingdom.

Our sources regarding Saudi Arabia are mum. What we are getting out of machine translated reports are that there is concern and some panic in the populace, which to me, means folks are getting sick and they are not getting answers from their government. I saw a notice on 'mortuary practices regarding nCoV. We have seen notices of school events being cancelled. These are governments that are capable of shutting down the internet and twitter services. Unlike China, where we got some leaks, there is nothing here. Keep in mind ten Chinese bloggers went to prison for blogging about H7N9. There are also attempt to crash my source's site daily. It goes down often.

You have to understand that businesses are rushing to get 'patents' for these viruses. There it money in patenting DNA. There is huge money to be made or lost in vaccine manufacture as well.

***nCoV will NOT have a vaccine. It's a coronavirus. We can NOT make a vaccine that will work.
Antibiotics will NOT work.
I can't say right now, what antivirals will work, but likely, we have none.
Current CFR is at 50%

**H7N9will NOT have a vaccine. H7 vaccines have been attempted in man and failed to get a human immune response.
Antibiotics will NOT work.
Thus far it does respond to Tamiflu and Relenza, but that doesn't mean if you get these drugs you are home free. You may have a chance.
Current CFR is at 30+%

*H5N1DOES have a vaccine, but the vaccine requires a large dose of the drug and it takes 2 doses set apart. We do not and can not make enough to mitigate a pandemic.
Thus far, it responds to Tamiflu and Relenza.
Current CFR is similar to H7N9 at roughly 30+%

I think, it is reasonable to have some antibiotics in your prep supplies. Veterinary antibiotics of certain types will do. I have them. I am also a knowledgeable health care professional. If you don't know what you are doing, they won't help you and could do more harm than good. If you don't have a medical person, such as a registered nurse, pharmacist or doctor in your circle, I suggest thinking about networking.

I strongly suggest having a hard copy professional drug book such as a PDR. The net could go down, then what? You need hard copy books.

There is NOTHING that would stop a devastating pandemic if either of these 3 viruses decides to bolt. nCoV has made the jump to human to human. Two nurses in Saudi caught it from a patient. A hospital room mate of a patient infected with nCoV in France got it. The first cluster in Britain brought it home to 3 of his family members. There are other clusters.

With H7N9 it is less certain, but, it is poised to become human to human. It has more genes directing it that way then does H5N1. That said, some dope in China crossed H5N1 with H1N1 making a hybrid flu that is supposedly locked up in the lab. (Like I feel safe about this. It is also here in the US locked up.) H5N1 on it's own is bad. H1N1 has been the worst flu to strike in 50 years.....why you would cross the two is beyond me. Any of these flus can share DNA, in nature and that is scary enough.

So, don't stockpile antibiotics to try to treat ANY of these diseases. If you feel you want some around (and I do) then get a reasonable selection of antibiotics that target a variety infections. Keep in mind, every antibiotic will not cure every bacterial infection. You have to have some idea of what you are treating. In a primitive world this will hinge on what medical knowledge you have. There are aerobic, anaerobic, gram positive, gram negative bacteria. You can't combine some antibiotics either. They can be toxic to the liver, to the kidneys and to the nervous system. They can produce Clostridium Difficile in your gut and that can kill you over time. Some antibiotics cause cardiac arrhythmias. Don't go relying on just swallowing a bottle of this. You need a knowledgeable medical person or you can get yourself sick.

What can take out a prepper is: bad skin infections likely from injuries, tooth abscess, bladder infections that go up to the kidney, pneumonias, uterine infections after childbirth. Anything less obvious, we won't have the ability to diagnose because we won't have laboratories or imaging. We will have thermometers.

You won't be eating these precious resources for ear infections or sinus infections. There will also be fungal infections, which are far more difficult to treat.

I also suggest adding lice treatment to your supplies. You can buy that at a store. I also have a very nasty bed bug killer, which I have never used because it's toxic, but, if things get really bad and you are being eaten alive, you may consider fumigating your bed and couch.

I suggest keeping ketoconazole shampoo, in case you get skin fungal infection you can use this to wash your body in. Also get fungal treatments for skin and nails. Miconazole for women for yeast. (Also works for men for general fungal.) After you use antibiotics, you are likely to get fungal.

It would not be a bad idea to keep pro-biotics around to repopulate your intestinal flora.

Unless you plan on having new little ones during this siege, it may pay to have condoms on hand too. I'm beyond that phase in my life, but, I have a lot of feisty young people, in my circle. I doubt that they are thinking about contraception in a crisis right now. My nightmare is a problem obstetrical case. Historically 1 out of 100 childbirths caused a maternal death. Historically 1 out of 5 births did not survive the first year. Antibiotics and immunization has mitigated this. Currently 25%-30% of births are via C-section, likely many of those unnecessary, but it's a scary thought.
 

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Throughout the 5 million years of human existence, we've survived every kind of virus and bacteria epidemic that Mother Nature's thrown at us, so our message to her is- "We've always ran the show on this planet and you'll have to come up with something mighty special to take us down!"
This cliff face at Cattedown in Plymouth is a mile across the water from where I live and was home to cavemen-



They call him and his mates 'Cattedown Man', boy they must have been tough to go up against T. Rex and come out on top, they make even Predator look pretty-

 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Yes, but human existence is but a blip in a universe that measures time in eons. Our planet has never had 7+ billion souls on it, either, moving rapidly about the globe.

No, a virus will likely not kill us all, but either of these three could thin the planet significantly.
 

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To have dramatic effect it would not need to be thinning the herd that much. Most food is grown in one area and shipped to another. Quarantines could disrupt our food distribution network and economy. Think Rome the bubonic plague and malarial epidemics were not her only problems but they sure made her more susceptible to invasion economic collapse etc.
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Well, for those of you who may be planning a pilgrimage to the Middle East for Ramadan (July 8-Aug 7) or the Haj in October, you may want to reconsider. I am sure many of you have this on your agenda. (snark).

From the dribs and drabs of info I am getting, nCoV is spreading. Saudi Arabia is not a member of WHO. WHO says nCoV is spreading and the Saudis need to get a handle on it. The Saudis have said they have no intention of limiting travel. Plus there was a dispute over who got the virus samples to study, because, DNA is apparently able to be 'owned' and therefore the profits from such a discovery. The 'sleeper' nCoV appears to be a bit more social than we expected. It's not spreading as fast as the common cold (yet) and likely it won't, but, it's definitely going human to human, and evidently without prolonged contact.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Something ODD is going on in Alabama. I can't tell you much.

SEVEN people have been hospitalized with an upper respiratory illness and 2 have died, 1 is in intensive care. They span all ages. They are not related. They live in a 10 county area in SE AL. Several had a 'flu like illness' prior or concomitantly.

At this point, there is NO connection to nCoV or any avian flu that I know of, but, I don't know much. I don't think any one knows much but I am sure the CDC is on it. I don't know the travel history of these people. It could be a resurgence of H1N1? It could be something all together different.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
One patient that died, was positive for H1N1 the 2009 pandemic strain. (Yes it is still around and killing people.) Another death has no information available. I am not sure if testing for influenza or coronavirus was done. A third patient still alive, has a strain of seasonal influenza A H3, more specifics are not known. 7 total were hospitalized in the last month, 2 died, 1 remains in intensive care. It's totally possible that these are people with co-morbid conditions.

It appears this is a blip, a fluke type occurrence of unrelated influenza type disease, but the CDC is watching it.
 
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