[JanerichoC18]

The cause of this my concerns for our country's future came in a different way. After I moved to Florida I got a craptastic job renting cars, while I was there I stopped paying attention to what was going on in the world because I was more concerned about finding a new job, and honestly it was mindless, mind numbing work so I got lazy. Once I got my new job as a mortgage banker they made a point to get us to pay attention to the news. Being uninformed for a year to current events had me lost at first, but it was refreshing to be knowledgeable about national and world events for the first time since college.

As I learned more about new mortgage programs it made me come to the conclusion that we are setting the table for another economic collapse. I am sure you all remember in 2008 when home values sky rocketed up with rates from the terrible programs and loans being sold. Then like a light switch being turned off no one could afford the crap mortgages they were put in and *poof* economic collapse. I know I am not saying anything you all don't already know, but here's the issue... It's happening again.

I am happy to say that a lot of the crap programs I don't agree with, the company I work for doesn't support however a lot of banks do. I've seen programs that allow people with crap credit put no money down on a house and show bare minimum paperwork (Poor credit history + No money = House??). Given right now this isn't a huge portion of the market, this is one of many examples of programs that should not be in existence. I agree everyone should have the right to own a home, but not everyone is prepared for it. As programs like this one (and many other similar programs) become more popular I've noticed the housing market is going up and rates are going up, and very quickly.

Now I am happy to see the housing market improving, however, as the restrictions on home ownership loosen up it seems to be the beginning steps of what lead to the 2008 crash. I don't believe our country is disciplined enough to handle something like this for a very long time. With how terrible the general population is with money and overall common sense I think this would end in disaster. What do you all think?

 

[rice paddy daddy]

I have been in the other end of the housing business for over 40 years - building material supply and distribution.
What we saw happening beginning around 2004 was the rising home sales led to so called spec houses. As in speculation. Contractors sprung up over night and began building single homes to full on housing subdivisions. Building on faith that they would sell.
The average person doesn't realize how many jobs are supported by the industry. Not just the construction guys, but: lumberjacks and saw mills, factories making refrigerators, asphalt plants making roofing, concrete yards, making the electrical wires, all those many, many things that go into construction. And it's all hauled by truck.
By 2006 it was crazy. Our distribution warehouse was working two shifts trying to keep up.
And we all know what happened.
If this cycle repeats itself it's going to be worse.
There is just too much greed.

 

[JanerichoC18]

I have been in the other end of the housing business for over 40 years - building material supply and distribution.
What we saw happening beginning around 2004 was the rising home sales led to so called spec houses. As in speculation. Contractors sprung up over night and began building single homes to full on housing subdivisions. Building on faith that they would sell.
The average person doesn't realize how many jobs are supported by the industry. Not just the construction guys, but: lumberjacks and saw mills, factories making refrigerators, asphalt plants making roofing, concrete yards, making the electrical wires, all those many, many things that go into construction. And it's all hauled by truck.
By 2006 it was crazy. Our distribution warehouse was working two shifts trying to keep up.
And we all know what happened.
If this cycle repeats itself it's going to be worse.
There is just too much greed.

I feel like this is exactly what is happening, our local builders can barely keep up with demand, people are accepting offers on houses within 24 hours... I am trying to find a temporary apartment for the next 6 months and even that's a pain in the ass! I was on a sales call at a Realtor's office the other day and he made the comment "We're getting ourselves right back to where we were a few years ago." Which he followed up with "I don't really care since I am making plenty off it." This is the same mindset that causes these issues, I completely agree there is way too much greed.

 

[Ripon]

I have lived most of my adult life in the booming areas of growth areas of CA. Our markets are improving, but new home development is still at a crawl. There were probably 50,000 new homes a year built in the valley now I'm guessing in 1,000.

 

[Smitty901]

I think you see the light. Many of us have been waving for years.

 

[LunaticFringeInc]

While things arent quiet as wreckless as they were we are slowly drifting back down that pathway once again. New home starts here in the area have ramped up considerably in the last 12 months and they are still building over priced 3500 plus sqft homes again, yet I havent seen any real improvement in the economy although things are fairly stable in my area these days but they arent great. I think your concern is a legit one for sure. Im working two full time jobs and have minimal debt and great credit and I dont think I can afford even a modest home hence the reason I am sticking to being a full time RVer!

 

[dwight55]

This type of actions is what preachers call "People caught in the act of being people".

Just like zebras getting eaten at the water hole by big crocs, . . . the zebra herd goes back for more water, . . . more get eaten. In the same way, . . . people do not learn from their past mistakes. If we did, . . . war would be a word in the dictionary, . . . not on every news cast and in every news paper.

Fast forward to 2013, . . . the "bust" was years ago, . . . some survivors profited from it, . . . others lived through it, . . . there is profit to be made now, . . . they're out there going at it again.

The comment from the one guy about not caring as he is doing well, . . . THAT is the problem in a nutshell.

May God bless,
Dwight

 

[vandelescrow]

When I was in my mid 20's, I sat in at my Dad's appointment with a financial consultant. When she was done with my Dad she looked at me and asked "What are you doing?". I told her I'm buying a government bond every month. She said she was very surprised to hear that because if I put 1 penny away a year, I'm ahead of my pears.

When I was stationed in Europe, my girlfriends family, 3 generations, living in the same house. For them, each generation had their own floor. That's great if your family gets along but . . . Anyway, what I liked about this was they were not sending Grandma and Grandpa off to an old folks home where their life long savings is gobbled up. Now I'm not saying you should work for your kids, and I know it can be very hard to care for the elderly, but it is a shame in this country there is little to nothing to pass on after your gone, after all the medical bills and what not the government gets their cut, aint that a kick in the teeth?

When you hear people call into radio shows like Clark Howard saying they are bringing home 6 figures, can't make ends meet and are so far in debt or someone wining the lottery being bankrupt in a year, man, people really need to grow up and learn responsibility. If these peoples great grand parents that lived through the depression saw the way they squander money, I'd love to see the tongue lashing that would result.

No I'm not doing the best I can. I'm not upside down on my house but very close, I don't expect someone to bail me out, I just keep making my payments as agreed. There is the key word "as agreed". No debt except the mortgage and enough in the bank to pay cash for a decent car if the one I have dies. And I'm making 1/3 the amount of money these people I mentioned earlier are making.

I don't get it, I heard there is enough credit card debt in America to equal its deficit. That's pitiful.

 

[rice paddy daddy]

I haven't had a credit card since 1985.

 

[Inor]

I think you have correctly identified one third of the problem. The other two thirds make this situation a potential catastrophe in my opinion.

One other major component of people starting to go off and speculate on housing again is the fact that this time around something like 80% or more of all mortgages are owned by either the Federal Reserve or the federal government through Fannie and Freddy. When the bubble bursts this time, it will not be banks on Wall Street going under, it will be the entire government and monetary system of the United States.

I was listening to some financial talk radio program yesterday where they were lamenting the recent rise in interest rates. They were complaining because mortgage interest is expected to go up to an average of 4.6% in the next few months. Are you kidding me?!? Mortgage interest of less than about 6% is what fuels speculation in the housing markets. It is what allows bubbles to form in the first place. You could argue that tougher lending standards could allow mortgages to be written at 4% without starting another bubble, but what bank is not going to write any loan they can when the Fed, Fannie and Freddy are buying all the loans they can get?

The third layer of this wonderful crap sandwich is the great unemployment number that came out on Friday. Hooray the economy added 195,000 jobs in June! Woo Hoo!!! Except when you look at what makes up that number... There were actually just over 300,000 part-time jobs that were created in June. So to have a net gain of 195,000 jobs it means we actually LOST 105,000 full-time jobs! Then if you look at where these jobs were created you will notice the vast majority were in the "hospitality" industry, followed by "professional services". In other words, we are all excited because we added 195,000 part-time bartenders, waitresses, and secretaries! (And these are the same folks that are buying the houses you all outlined above.) We actually lost 6,000 manufacturing jobs in June, plus the trade deficit rose to a tick over $400 billion (the second highest ever).

EuroPacific Capital is saying that the U6 unemployment actually rose in June from 13.6% to 14.3%. That is a HUGE jump in one month! For those of you that have a real life and generally don't care about dorky statistics, the U6 is the unemployment number that includes people that have part-time work but actually want full-time and people that have given up looking for work.

So eat, drink and enjoy the summer because if this gets as big as the '08 melt-down, the effects are going to be much much worse.

 

[rice paddy daddy]

Out here in small town America, Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia version, small businesses are closing at a rapid rate. In the last month alone there have been at least three restarants close, the gun shop I have patronized for 15 years was liquidated at auction as was a building supply business and an engine rebuilding shop. Each morning as I commute the 40 miles into the city traffic is less and less, so the city job market must be struggling also. There are parts of Jacksonvile that look like Beruit, or worse - Detriot.
There is no recovery here.
I'm glad I'm approaching the end of my full time career, if I was 30 and married with kids I'd be terrified.
We have cancelled the satelite TV service (no cable and not much on-air reception out here), downgraded the phone to just local calls plus internet, and keep the AC set at 80 degrees.
Oct 2014 I can officially retire, but for me that means I would still have to work part time to have anything more than a bare bones existence.
I might not be terified, but I'm darn sure worried. A lot. I do not know if this country will survive Obama.

 

[longrider]

Darn scary. I have 15 years to go before retirement.:-(

 

[vandelescrow]

Not only what Obama is doing to this country but consider this. Walmart. Walmart has caused most mom and pops shops to close in towns they open in. Those full time jobs have turned into part time and Walmart is now the largest employer in America. Since Sam Walton died, Walmart has moved their purchasing from strictly Made in America to mostly made in Chine. Chine now holds a majority of our debt. If you think unemployment is bad now, what would happen if China decides to have an embargo against us? Could that single act destroy us?

 

[Doc Holliday]

What happened leading up to and after the 2008 housing bubble burst and our tanked economy is starting to happen again. Prices are going up, rates are going up, banks are giving loans to people that should not have them or can afford them...... Its going to happen again but this time it will destroy the country economically, Ben Franklin got it right when he said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result." The federally (our money) backed banks think they can do the same thing as before but it wont turn out the same as it did the last time....

I am almost convinced that they want our currency to tank. With their ideas of having one world government, how best to start it? They cannot bring the entire planet up to our living standard so they must bring our standard of living down to a 3rd world country so it will be easier to get the people to support their ideas and ideals.

just my thinking....

Doc

 

[rice paddy daddy]

What happened leading up to and after the 2008 housing bubble burst and our tanked economy is starting to happen again. Prices are going up, rates are going up, banks are giving loans to people that should not have them or can afford them...... Its going to happen again but this time it will destroy the country economically, Ben Franklin got it right when he said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result." The federally (our money) backed banks think they can do the same thing as before but it wont turn out the same as it did the last time....

I am almost convinced that they want our currency to tank. With their ideas of having one world government, how best to start it? They cannot bring the entire planet up to our living standard so they must bring our standard of living down to a 3rd world country so it will be easier to get the people to support their ideas and ideals.

just my thinking....

Doc

I truly believe that Obama's grand design is to collapse the economy so that he can institute a marxist system. Remember, he promised to "fundamentally transform America." He was very clear on this. Transform America from capitalism to what?
He seems to be doing a fine job so far. Obamacare will certainly speed up the process.

 

[retired guard]

I truly believe that Obama's grand design is to collapse the economy so that he can institute a marxist system. Remember, he promised to "fundamentally transform America." He was very clear on this. Transform America from capitalism to what?
He seems to be doing a fine job so far. Obamacare will certainly speed up the process.

I don't know if Obama intends harm. Of course a solar flare EMP would not intend harm.