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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
A new case of Avian Influenza H7N9 has been reported in Hebei, China. A 61 year old female.

I suspect we will see H7N9 lurking around in China for a while before it becomes efficient at human to human transmission. It is highly transmissible in ferrets, which is a good model for humans, so I surmise at some point, it will become more efficient at human to human.

Nothing to panic about, but, H7N9 has not gone away.
 

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It's just mother nature fidgeting with the keys to a pandemic.
well said - if you read the book World War z about a Zombie pandemic the author has it starting in some remote part of China and spreading across the world.

Of course in the film they had to change that to not offend the potentially huge Chinese movie going market.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
The only thing that differs now from the 'olden days' is that it spreads so fast due to air travel. It's just one transoceanic flight away. H7N9 is alive and well in the bird population and it will likely pop up like H5N1 for a while. It can spread human to human, but, thus far it hasn't been that aggressive or we would be in the middle of a huge pandemic.

nCoV-MERS is likely far more common in the Middle East than we know and probably a lot more people are surviving it than we know. I don't expect a lot of transparency from that region. As far as 'risk assessments' go, keep in mind that any country that issues a risk assessment is doing it based on the conditions in that country as of today. As of today, in the US, you are not likely to contract nCoV.....as cases pop up here and there, and it gets more common your risk goes up.
 

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So when is the big pilgrimage supposed to take place for members of Islamic faiths?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
It's going on right now. PLOS did a study to analyze where they expect to see MERS-CoV appear first. (not h7N9) From July to November is when most of the pilgrimages take place.
"In other recent developments, an international team of researchers estimated that in the peak months for Muslim pilgrimages in 2012, 16.8 million travelers flew out of the four Middle Eastern countries that have had indigenous MERS cases, which the authors said suggests the potential for the virus to spread around the world.

The team analyzed 2012 worldwide commercial flight data to estimate how many travelers flew out of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates from June through November, the peak months for Umrah and Hajj pilgrimages, according to their Jul 17 report in PLoS Currents: Outbreaks.

Of the 16.8 million travelers, 51.6% went to India, Egypt, Pakistan, the UK, Kuwait, Bangladesh, Iran, or Bahrain, the report says. India alone accounted for 16.3%.

"The authors also estimated that, of 1.74 million foreign pilgrims who performed the Hajj last year, 65.1% came from lower- and middle-income countries. They comment that MERS-CoV circulation coincides with "two mass gatherings [Umrah and the Hajj] in Saudi Arabia that are expected to draw millions of travelers and Muslin pilgrims from predominantly resource poor countries with limited capacity to detect and respond to imported cases."

Understanding the most probable pathways for international spread of MERS-CoV could help medical and public health providers worldwide operate in a far more anticipatory and less reactive manner than occurred during SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003]," the report concludes.
 

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It appears that a case of human to human transmission has been identified in China. A daughter who was caring for her father and had no history of proximity to any other form of exposure.

Both appear to have passed from multiple organ failure within a month of diagnosis.
 

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Has anyone seen the film Contagion?

For a hollywood flick I think its a pretty fair portrayal of how a virus could travel worldwide
 

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well said - if you read the book World War z about a Zombie pandemic the author has it starting in some remote part of China and spreading across the world.
Of course in the film they had to change that to not offend the potentially huge Chinese movie going market.
In 'Survivors' a butter-fingered chinaman drops a lab flask full of germs and wipes out nearly everybody on earth..;)

 

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I don't trust reporting or stats that come out of china.

As to the haj and msrv, I'll keep my thoughts to myself but it could be disastrous.
 

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To make matters worse I read this today - its like straight out of the plot of a bad Zombie film - right?

Scientists to make mutant forms of new bird flu to assess risk - See more at: Scientists to make mutant forms of new bird flu to assess risk Metro.us
I know, right? Just what we need, some jerkwad who wants to play with the pretty virus.

Or West World where nothing can possibly go wrong go wrong go wrong.
No worries, they got this....NOT.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
So, there are no new cases of nCoV being reported anywhere in the Arabian peninsula. At the same time, they reported that several health care workers had 'mild' cases of nCoV and apparently didn't know it until they were tested. There is NO reliable information coming from that part of the world, and we can't blame WHO because they need reports from the countries of interest. I would say we have not seen the last of nCoV, but it will be a while before we see it crop up in places willing to disclose it is there. I am wondering how any of this relates to the ongoing terror threats of the region. It's dawned on me, that infesting people with these germs would be a good threat.

As I said before of nCoV, it's all over the Arabian peninsula, and likely, there are many mild cases. I suspect the CFR (case fatality rate) will drop substantially as this disease evolves. It's a slow mover to be sure, but, it is a dangerous disease.

On H7N9, there was an additional case of this in Hebei China. Research on existing cases has confirmed that another cluster was human to human transmission. We have not seen the last of this one either. Now labs are tinkering with it to make it even more transmissible. I wouldn't feel so bad about this if I thought science knew what it was doing, but it doesn't.

I wish I could tell you when these will explode. I can't. I wish I could tell you that the news we get is accurate, and timely, but I can't. Unfortunately, we just don't have REAL news. I would continue to prep as you normally would, keeping in mind though, that to not get a contagious disease, you need to include isolation in your plan. If you are an urban survivalist, you will need to consider how you plan to remain isolated, or protect yourself when in a crowd. You must have at least an N95 mask, those cheap little paper masks are worthless.

N95 masks are a good investment for pandemic prep. It won't hurt to have a few boxes of these around. If you don't need them for pandemic, you can use them for a variety of chores. They are hard to get when SFTF somewhere in the world, so get them now. Goggles are also good, gloves too. Consider a HEPA filter for your home. Get bleach, Lysol spray and alcohol gel. Learn about aseptic technique. Learn how to degown or deglove without contaminating yourself.

I suspect we will hear of cases popping up here and there, but to be honest, I feel that the media has some vested interest in not keeping us informed. With corporate media as our source of news, what we are really getting is propaganda.
 
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