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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
We all dread the concept, when SHTF you and your family have to leave everything you have worked for and known. In my interaction with families on the issue I have seen some really great concepts and some horrible ones. I would like to talk about the tactical portion of the issue and how people are lacking in general knowledge when it comes to tactics and combat effectiveness.

Bugging out should first be considered a hostile defensive posture, not a stroll in the park. If your house is under engagement, be assured it's not the only one. When your feet hit the ground you need to immediately start hostile patrol procedures. This includes situational awareness, personnel spacing, low ready and high ready actions, battle formations, engagement techniques, and most importantly your Bug Out Silhouette. This is your Visual Profile, Material Attractiveness, and general defensive appearance of your group. Re-consider using bug out carts, bikes, wagons, etc. These items stuffed with supplies are immobile, and create the conditions for robbery and worse. If you plan on using a Vehicle to drive to your bug out location, same rule applies. Don't cram your entire amount of supplies window to window, and on top of the car. Everything that you need for your location should already be at your location. Any daily food and water needed during transit needs to be cached. Anything that goes with you to get out of dodge needs to fit on your back. The average American has 3 days of food in the pantry. You don't think a starving father or mother won't kill you and your family to feed his? Give no temptation to anybody. You need Assault Rifles. Forget the combat capabilities, they look mean. Here's where our defensive appearance comes into play. A potential looter sees your group en route to your location. He's waiting for vulnerability, however your group seems armed to the teeth with some badass weaponry and body armor. He'd rather not die today. Also standardize your weapon systems with the group. If one uses a .223 AR everybody else needs to as well. This increases your training opportunity and the sharing of ammo becomes efficient. Exercise, Exercise, Exercise. Napoleon's troops marched 30 miles a day. If you're fit, you can traverse rough terrain and reduce your chances of being noticed by anybody. Training, being able to effectively shoot, move, and communicate as a well-oiled machine makes you a combat multiplier. Teach your group in tactical movement, hand to hand defense, combat firearms training, ambush techniques and asymmetric warfare. Become a double threat.

Sean
Instructor @ PrepCon
www.facebook.com/projectlong
 

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>clears throat> breaking contact drills <clears throat>

Training/practice as a group is essential so that everyone knows what to expect from everyone else in the group. I would be so bold as to say that even for non tactically trained individuals having assigned duties and a practiced approach will likely carry the day vs a random untrained advesary that does not enjoy overwhelming superiority in numbers.
 

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I would expect most communities to establish local militias. I would expect them to patrol in force, establish observation posts, and have prepared defensive positions, probably in depth. You don't want to walk into such an area looking like a threat.

If you come a callin' in staggered formation with combat intervals and serious weapons, expect the totally hidden OP to call it in. You WILL be ambushed. You will be pursued, harassed, and ultimately, eliminated. You will have declared your intentions by your "Bug Out Silhouette."

There will be 2 kinds of people walking around: samurais and ninjas. Samurais will be slaughtered. Ninjas will be unnoticed.

Sun Tzu knew what he was talking about when he said, "Never fight battles you don't have to win."

The best way to avoid looking like a target is to not be seen at all.
 

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I agree that "military" like tactics and training are needed in some situations there are others where those tactics will most assuredly make you undesirable.
Ninja like invisibility is a concept that has merit too but only in some situations.
Eventually you are going to need something that others can supply and you are going to have to introduce yourself and tell them who you are and what you need and what you can provide to pay for it. There are few small towns that will want a bunch of paramilitary ninjas running around without some kind of limits put on them.
My point is that there are limits to each path you take. Be flexible and prepared but take the time to communicate with your group, family, or who-ever and realize that if you can offer what someone else needs then you are more likely to be acceptable - whether you are accepted or not.
 

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Paul, agreed.

A good prep to have is a white flag, so you can at least approach the militia without getting shot.

Long term, it's a matter of being worth more than you cost.
 
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SHTF I am not worried about the Military. They will have their hands full in the Cities.
As for Bugging out We looked at it and it just was not a workable plan for us.
We will Bug IN and enforce our boundaries .
Well trained people can hold off a very large attack in the defense.
I am not even to worried about that . The way I see it the most important thing will be enforcing boundaries to stop smaller groups of roving people from taking what is yours by force .
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
I would expect most communities to establish local militias. I would expect them to patrol in force, establish observation posts, and have prepared defensive positions, probably in depth. You don't want to walk into such an area looking like a threat.

If you come a callin' in staggered formation with combat intervals and serious weapons, expect the totally hidden OP to call it in. You WILL be ambushed. You will be pursued, harassed, and ultimately, eliminated. You will have declared your intentions by your "Bug Out Silhouette."

I wouldn't believe in a collapse, local militias wouldn't be organized for some time. If there are some established, you don't think they don't have roving patrols, or LP/OPs where you plan on being a ninja? I'd rather walk up to the front door and knock than be in the woods sneaking around. We live in a country of 350 million people, you will be noticed. Of course I agree to avoid the situation in the first place. I'm not going to conjecture on the what if's. Any plan never goes to plan and is subject to adaptation. I wasn't trying to suggest going balls to the wall and shooting everything, just be prepared to do it well if you have to.
 

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First of all, understand that I do agree with a lot of what you're saying. Yeah, if you need to move, maintain situational awareness and move tactically when appropriate. Training is always good. I'm just adding a little different perspective on "...your Visual Profile, Material Attractiveness, and general defensive appearance of your group," as you put it. Keep in mind that we are talking specifically about getting to a BOL.

Looking like someone they don't want to mess with can work for you or against you. Looking weak can work for you or against you. Remaining undetected is always safe.

I wouldn't believe in a collapse, local militias wouldn't be organized for some time.
This depends almost entirely up the type and extent of the crisis. Bugging out is only realistic in either a long term grid failure or maybe a pandemic. In both cases, it's logical to assume that police, neighborhood watch groups. and vigilante groups would be active within days, with the National Guard not far behind. All of these groups would be working to maintain order, and I wouldn't want to encounter any of them looking like a threat.

If there are some established, you don't think they don't have roving patrols, or LP/OPs where you plan on being a ninja?
Yes, there would be patrols and LPs/OPs, but I would be a ninja. Ninjas use the terrain and move at night, avoiding obvious routes. They walk a little, then look and listen a lot. Ninjas project themselves into the minds of their opponents and can anticipate and avoid observation, moving silently like the mist in a shadow. No, really, ninjas freakin rule.

I'd rather walk up to the front door and knock than be in the woods sneaking around.
From my ninja-like hide, I will observe you doing this and make a note of what refugee camp they send you to. If you hear a whispered, "I told you so" from that mist in the shadow over there, ignore it. It's just the wind.

We live in a country of 350 million people, you will be noticed.
Being noticed is a matter of population density, terrain, weather, skill of the ninja, distance to travel, and a few other things. In some areas, it's not possible to remain unseen, but you can still be unnoticed. Looking like you belong is a form of ninja invisibility. If need be, the ninja will assume the guise of a sheep and mill with the flock. In general, an AR toting squad in body armor moving tactically in a para-military formation is somewhat more noticeable.

Of course I agree to avoid the situation in the first place.
OK

I'm not going to conjecture on the what if's.
All planning is based on conjecture about the what ifs.

Any plan never goes to plan and is subject to adaptation. I wasn't trying to suggest going balls to the wall and shooting everything, just be prepared to do it well if you have to.
Can't argue with that. :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Bugging out shouldn't be a first option, I think we both understand the dangers involved in doing it at all. It seems your plan of execution involves you and you alone. Which is more suited to individual in the first place. A family, however can't remain entirely quiet. I have never seen a 2 year old ninja. Social Infrastructure Post-SHTF is unpredictable to say the least. Like you said, it's all dependent on types of collapse. What Militia would spend the time and resources on a Refugee Camp? It's either yes, you can pass through or no you can't. Simple as that. Having the poker card of you're going to die if we have to die, and having the tools to do it, is definitely a deterrent to conflict. You're stealth mode may work for you, but not a group of people.
 

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You've never seen a 2 year old ninja and I've never seen a 2 year old commando. <shrug>

The National Guard (a militia) would set up the refugee camps, probably aided by the State Defense Force (another militia) in states that have them. They might be helped by the International Red Cross and other international organizations, which might even include the UN's Refugee Agency. (UNHCR) So no, I am not saying that the local ad hoc militia would set up refugee camps.

82% of all Americans live in or around cities. In any widespread, long term "grid down" situation, we would be unable to supply cities with enough food. This would force a mass redistribution of the population into areas that could support their food needs.

Smaller communities would certainly establish local ad hoc militias to prevent being overrun by those fleeing the cities. I would expect them to be thrown together with a combination of police, neighborhood watches, vigilante groups, ex-military, and any other able bodied souls they could find. The composition and disposition of these groups would vary wildly. Out of the way towns might be welcoming and glad to help, those in the main "migration routes" might turn you away or even shoot on sight.

It would be possible to move a family or group through such an environment unnoticed. My basic strategy would be to have the main body hunker down somewhere out of sight while the "ninjas' scout ahead. If there's one thing I learned in the 3rd Cav, it's how to recon. Area, point, zone, or route recons are what the cav eats for breakfast. You find a safe route, then lead the group through it.

This isn't magic, and it's not all that hard. It's about the same as the modern "coyotes" who bring thousands of illegals across the borders every week. These groups, sometimes numbering 30-40 men, women, and children, manage to walk through guarded and patrolled hostile territory every day, and few of them get detected, let alone caught. Hell, they do it and they aren't even ninjas! :)
 

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Rare footage of actual Mexican ninjas avoiding patrols and sneaking through guarded territory. Note the 2 year old ninja at 1:25...

 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Data shows the illegal immigrant apprehension rate from border security operations to be at 84 percent of all illegal crossings. That's not a great success rate.You missed the point on the child. I wouldn't expect a 2 year old to have a rifle in his hand. I would expect his/her mother and father to have the proper equipment and training to protect that child if he/she starting screaming or crying, alerting adversaries. Your mass migration theory contradicts your population density platform which your standing on. With that migration, I'm sure any Militia or Authority left would already have crap up to their neck to take care of. Recon, Sector Sketching, and Operational Planning accordingly is important to group movement, that's a given. That scout from 3rd ACR has some pretty heavy backup when SHTF too. My point is simple too...Training and efficient weaponry are essential to survival.
 

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Sector sketching and operational planning!! Really?

<throws up his hands in surrender>

OK, you win. :)

Peace, out.
 
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