Choosing your disaster scenarios and your situation before prepping
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Choosing your disaster scenarios and your situation before prepping

This is a discussion on Choosing your disaster scenarios and your situation before prepping within the General Talk forums, part of the General Discussion category; Realistic prepping for most likely disasters depends on what disaster you suspect may occur and what type of environment you live in. Since I can't ...

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Thread: Choosing your disaster scenarios and your situation before prepping

  1. #1
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    Choosing your disaster scenarios and your situation before prepping

    Realistic prepping for most likely disasters depends on what disaster you suspect may occur and what type of environment you live in. Since I can't afford to prep for every possible emergency I focus on what I consider the most likely scenarios keeping in mind where I live.

    In my case the suspected disaster would be one of the three
    *Man-made viral outbreak like the flu pandemic of 1918 (around 75 million people died and that was before rapid modern transportation)
    *Major long term electrical failure (most likely cyber-terrorism induced)
    *Major financial collapse (Someday the economy may totally collapse but I doubt it is going to happen in the next 15 years)

    Years ago when I lived in the suburbs and made very little money. I kept a good BOB and figured I could afford $300/yr on supplies with plans to get my butt up to family in the NC hills so I kept things light weight and focused on high calorie foods, the ability to make fire and light, and a good hand crank radio. I lived far enough outside the city to where I figured I could get out. I also kept a small stash on family property in NC.

    Now days I live 40 miles from a major city in a semi-rural community with small farms and generally older neighbors, many who still eat what they grow. This has changed the type of prepping I do, While I still keep my BOB handy and a small stash in NC I now focus on a secure water supply, ability to store food, and the ability to protect what supplies I have. In other words what it takes to stay in place.

    While I don’t share much information about my preparations with neighbors I try to instill a “you watch out for my property and I’ll help protect yours” attitude. I figure that even with several people in the house sharing the security effort with neighbors will increase my chances with layers of protection. Going at it solo in a survival situation is a no win situation for most people. We all have to sleep sometime and having the layers of neighbors working together will help keep you from getting surprised. Get to know your neighbors; it could make a huge difference to your defense if you are forced to stay close to the house.

    I’ve talked to too many people who just build up supplies or use prepping as an excuse to buy another weapon without actually considering their starting location, where they will be when the crisis first strikes. Is there a realistic way out if there is a panic rush to leave the city? Sometimes there isn’t. And if the cities emptied out the woods would become as crowded as the cities. Bottom line is I suspect most people in densely packed cities will find themselves in a hopeless situation unless they have a ton of supplies and can hide in their “empty” looking but well defended home. The roads out will almost instantly become choked with traffic.

    I suspect in some suburb situations a person may be better off collaborating with their neighbors and sticking close to home unless they have a clearly defined, well stocked bugout location that they can reach on foot. Leaving the security of mutually supporting neighbors and solid shelter may not always be the best idea when you can only fit 70 lbs of supplies on your back to head out into woods that will be densely packed with others who have less food than you may have.

    There is a major downside to staying close to people you know well when the neighbor's food runs out. When the cute little kids down the street are starving will you be able to sit in comfort eating that Mountain House meal??? Hard choices will have to be made. I actually keep some extra rice and other low cost foods for the twins down the street but I don't tell their parents about it.
    Last edited by 8301; 12-20-2014 at 12:36 PM.
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  2. #2
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    Here is another chain of thought. What if you merely prepare for the worse? If you simply prepare for the worst possible scenario the others are all covered.

    I consider the unlikely event of an EMP attack on our nation to be the worst. If I can handle that then all others seem quite simple.
    This place has become more disturbing then SHTF.

  3. #3
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    I agree with Ripon. When I started prepping right after Katrina, I spent money prepping for such a weather related SHTF event. I don't think I spent too much extra money on things too centered on a weather event. But I saw the light fairly quickly and sat down and listed all the events I thought could happen in which I wouldn't be killed outright. It didn't take long to spot a trend in my list.
    Denton likes this.
    I really want one of these!Hidden Content

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  5. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ripon View Post
    Here is another chain of thought. What if you merely prepare for the worse?
    above is a A++++ post.... My long term goal is to have enough food for 3.5 years and some extra, enough ammo for hunting and protection,

    with enough food, water, shelter, security, basic medical.... you can survive anything that is survivable.... not alien invasion by zombie martians with death rays that suck up all the water and then blow up the earth core....but short of that you are good
    Denton likes this.

  6. #5
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    We do as Ripon Mentioned, prepare for the worse and you will cover anything else that may come down. Ours is hurricanes and we feel we are well prepared for one of those. We went thru Charley and Wilma. Had no power for about a week in both,we did just fine.
    You build on failure, you use it as a stepping stone.
    Johnny Cash.

  7. #6
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    In my case buying 3+ years of food would break the bank. As I said in the 1st post I budget $300-$600 a year towards disaster prepping which means I'm able to increase my food supplies an additional few weeks per year. Since I'm an occasional shooter I don't consider extra ammo a survival expense.

    My grandparents had a very fancy and expensive survival bunker for nuclear attack buried in the front yard. Obviously it never got used except as a play place when I as a kid. Very expensive play place and when they passed the bunker was destroyed for a new house. Our long term storage food is rarely going to last over 15 years unless we are very careful to rotate it. I date my food but I'm not going to put too much effort to rotate pallets of food for the rest of my life.

    While I refuse to be some helpless unprepared victim crying for FEMA to come save me I also realize there is more to life than living in a bunker with every spare penny going towards prepping. There has to be some balance point and in my case it's currently around $500/yr. Still at $300-$600/yr. over the years it has built up to a fairly good stash of goodies to help me get through a crisis.

    I can see where a person with plenty of disposable income might spend pretty heavy the first year or two to build up a basic supply but for me it's been a slow steady building up process of both skills and supplies. Still, I'm not interested in sitting on 3 years worth of food for 3 people so at some point I will reduce my food purchases to rotational levels only, probably when I get to 5 months worth at 2000 calories a day.
    Last edited by 8301; 12-20-2014 at 01:35 PM.
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    Remember another word in preparation is sustainability. For example I have rice and beans that will likely go 10 years but veggies and meats for less than one. I've spent more on being able to produce veggies and meats then hoard a storage locker full. The same is true for water. In my desert location its a most critical commodity but I don't store as much as some might think. That is because I know where I can always get it and we collect enough rain water for our needs and retain it. Power is a commodity that's darn hard to store, but you can develop sustaining renewables like solar and in my case bio fuel production. Reloading ammo is a means to storing a lot more in components then in live ammo.
    slewfoot likes this.
    This place has become more disturbing then SHTF.

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    The most likely scenarios tend to be short duration events, e.g. a Hurricane. Longer term events are possible but the odds are lower. My approach has been less scenario specific than preparing for a certain length of time. The longer I can go without resupply of any sort, the better prepared I am. Most events require the same stuff, they just require more of it as you bump out the time involved.

  10. #9
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    Like I said earlier, what you add to your preps depends on your expected location. Since I live in a farming area and have some open land and a tractor (for my business) I keep a seed vault. The idea is to store enough food to last until I can get a crop going although I admit the crops could fail but in my case it's a cost effective way to increase my food supply. I don't have a plow for the tractor but figure I can borrow one from a neighbor.

    But like Diver I figure most of the problems will be short duration.
    Last edited by 8301; 12-20-2014 at 03:10 PM.

  11. #10
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    Yes I agree with many of you. I prepare for the worst and then the small disasters will only be a speed bump in the day to day living for us.
    Everyone is entitled to an opinion as long as it is a learned one.

 

 
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