How Seriously Are Fellow Preppers Taking This Coronavirus in North America? - Page 21

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How Seriously Are Fellow Preppers Taking This Coronavirus in North America?

This is a discussion on How Seriously Are Fellow Preppers Taking This Coronavirus in North America? within the General Talk forums, part of the General Discussion category; 3/8 update. As many of you know, if you're scouring the news reports. The Covad Virus has now reached epidemic status throughout the usa. The ...

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Thread: How Seriously Are Fellow Preppers Taking This Coronavirus in North America?

  1. #201
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    3/8 update.

    As many of you know, if you're scouring the news reports. The Covad Virus has now reached epidemic status throughout the usa.
    The majority of states have cases with self perpetuating spread. (aka not in quarantine)

    Due to the lack of testing capability, we are seriously behind in diagnosing and quarantining those who are infected, tracing their contacts who also need to be self quarantined, and limiting the spread.
    based on the rapid growth over the last week, the measures lag very far behind the spread.
    Before the disease can be controlled, we need to see an equal number of (people recovering + people dying) = the number of new infections in the usa.
    this will signify that the spread is controlled.

    In poor countries with poor health systems (IRAN), countries with crazy cults who violate health orders (S Korea), and care free populations who just dont care about the warnings (northern Italy)...
    You see sustained transmission ... and eventually the straining of health officials to perform contact isolation.
    when it's a dozen folks who are sick ..you have to find all the people they have been closely exposed to for 1 week say ~ 100 people per person...
    if any of those contacts show sympotoms... then that's another 100 people you have to contact....
    these health care workers then need to check on all those contacts each day... and instruct them to come in to be tested if they start having symptoms....
    when it's a dozen folks... thats a big deal....
    when its 2 dozen folks... then it increase your work by 10x
    when it's 3 dozen folks it increases your work by 100x..
    and so on and so on...

    there is a breaking point where public health officials can't keep up with new cases and stop the spread...
    this happened in 5 days in washington state...
    they were not prepared to deal with the nursing home residents, their families, the workers, the firefighters and paramedics who transported the patients, the hospital staff, the kids of the hospital staff, the school mates of those kids...
    within a very short time, the system broke down to prevent transmission.
    also several nursing home staff came down with symptoms, followed by first responders, followed by hospital staff who were not trained in using protective gear, and terminal cleans of equipment, rooms, etc...
    in other words... though we had 3 months to prepare... we are woefully unprepared to deal with the flood of sick people...

    conclusion : stay away from hospitals unless necessary.
    in hubei province in china : epidemiologists studying the genetic makeup of transmission determined that 80% of the infections were acquired in the hospital. most likely from patient to patient spread while waiting in the ER. and from patient to staff.
    I forsee something very similar here in the usa.
    Hospitals need to do isolation of anyone who comes in with corona virus symptoms before they enter the building... similar to S korea, who do 'drive thru' testing in the parking lot... keeping everyone in their cars so they don't mingle .. or have contact with hospital staff.

    2 Government response.
    I don't want to talk politics.... too controversial.. just talk about practical evaluation and predictions of govt response....
    So the bad first ..
    Trump has been confusing making off the cuff comments which have contradicted policies set by the cdc, HHS, and NIH. He's just too impulsive and should be ignored, as most of his commentary is just wrong.

    CDC has failed utterly in preparing for this. Diagnostic testing should have been accelerated in january when they had the genome. They fucked up the test kits which had to be recalled, and now they are weeks behind on quarantine and control.
    the lack of testing center capability is not just negligent but it's a crime. we can't even test for 1/2 of the number of symptomatic cases... hopefully this gets corrected rapidly.. as we are in the steep part of the growth curve... I have hope.. China was able to increase their testing capabilities rapidly... even though their initial response was atrocious, they rapidly ramped up their testing capability to insane numbers... authoritarian govts can do this... we need our govt to take charge and be pre emptive.. not reactionary.

    Bureaucracy : the cdc nih, hhs, are still following protocols set 10 years ago during the ebola outbreak. those protocols are so rigid and cumbersome, that they've handicapped the ability of the health care system to rapidly adapt and control the outbreak.
    unfortunately the changes to these protocols are slow, and they are 3 weeks late... however at least they recognize that they need to change them...

    which leads me to the good...

    Pence has pleasantly surprised me... CNN crucified him when he was apppointed the head of the Covad response... they were extremely critical of his history as governor during the HIV crisis. He's done a stand up job, finding good people and appointing people to task with vaccine development, coordination between the bumbling agencies, he's been good with communication, and seems to listen to the right scientists... prioritizing and understanding crisis mode means taking care of quarantine, information dissemination, emergency health resource release, and prepping the population for draconian measures such as curfews, mass quarantines, trying to calm people and prevent panicked buying... (damn wish I bought costco stock)

    We have the greatest health care system in the world.. despite what bernie would have you believe.
    the survival so far has mimicked what we would expect... younger people will get a cold.. older people ... >70 ... will get very sick...
    for those with respiratory issues (smokers) and heart issues... the prolonged illness overwhelms them. but early treatment seems to help them survive long enough for their immune systems to catch up.

    other good news..
    the virus has mutated into several forms... but none of them seem to be any more fatal...
    most people still have minor to no symptoms.
    China was able to significantly reduce their transmission with Draconian measures... mass quarantines, martial law, prioritizing health care resources to those expected to survive, and not wasting resources on those not expected, travel restrictions, work shutdowns, and strict media censorship. that is probably the best news for the world for two reasons...

    1 it shows that with strong leadership and the populations cooperation the epidemic in the USA can be stopped.
    2 the hit on the us economy will be limited, as chinas supply of manufactured goods will resume soon.
    3 hopefully the usa will rethink its supply chain, and increase domestic manufacturing, and have backup suppliers not dependent on one nation.
    4 we have a model for how we can control spread, and change our policies . and learn from those who failed (iran, italy)

    For those of you who have prepared and are ready to wait things out... I think the transmission will slow down as the weather warms... I don't see why this virus wouldnt be subject to the same environmental conditions from warmer weather.
    Just like the cold slows down during warmer weather months.. this will too... there will be outbreaks... and I assume it will pop its head back up in the fall... but i think the transmisison will significantly slow down due to unfavorable conditions for the virus on fomites.. Ie ... it dies faster on surfaces and in the air (more sunlight, warmer temps, faster breakdown of it's membrane, more difficult for it to infect people)

    for those of you who are scared... and wondering what can you do...
    transmission is just like a cold virus...
    you cant get it from your hands
    you cant get it from your skin...
    you cant get it from being in the same state with someone....

    it is transmitted thru your nose.. mouth ... and mucosal membranes..
    dont pick your nose...
    dont touch anything you eat.. anything you eat with.. or use for food prep without washing first.... people forget this and touch their phones again.. touch chairs.. menus... books.. tv remotes.. etc... when you eat.. wash first.. and eat... get in the habit of removing all electronics from the dinner table. that phone is probably the dirtiest thing you carry around.

    wash your hands frequently and watch a video on how to do so in a public washroom... anything you touch can have germs... including the faucet knobs.. the soap dispenser.. the paper towel dispenser.. and the door handle on the way out...
    watch a video on how to wash without contaminating yourself turning off the water, drying, and on the way out....

    minimize your trips out
    minimize being in inclosed places with others.. elevators... cars with strangers... buses... trains... planes... sporting events..

    my guess is kids will be a big vector of transmission...
    they just dont understand how to not get sick... day care and schools... will be huge huge huge factors for spread...
    When my kids were in day care.. parents used to drop of sick kids all the time... pissed me off.... we would keep our kids home.. do sick days... try to be responsible... and others would just try to give them tylenol so their temps would be normal when they dropped them off.. knowing they were contagious....

    people suck... and they dont care about others...
    the stress to work... and have your kids at school will be huge..
    if you can... keep them home... or they will be bringing it home.

    for viral infections...
    SLEEP frequently and long.
    keep warm - viruses dont like warm temperatures.. thats why we have fevers... to make our bodies poor hosts..
    drink frequently - dehydration leads to weakness, organ failure.
    nutrition - even if you feel like crap... you need to take in nutrition.. chicken noodle soup .. anything liquid which you can drink... it sucks to swallow with a sore throat.. so keep it easy.
    get an electric blanket, or electric heating pad... youll have chills... but the warmer you are .. the less miserable youll be
    dont take tylenol or ibuprofen unless your temp gets over 102 , or you really cant sleep. fevers shorten duration of viral illnesses.
    wear a mask so you dont spread respiratory droplets when you cough... - make several out of tee shirts.. or use a bunch of bandanas...
    each cough will make it airborne... a mask will capture that... and its better than coughing on your hand and touching everything in your house.

    eat alone
    sleep alone.. vent the air outside with a bathroom fan, or window fan
    if you have a uv-c light decon the sick room, when you leave.
    stay upright / vertical/ and walk around ... dont just lay in bed.

    keep in the back of your mind... once you get it... and get over it... you'll develop an immunity to it...
    I expect to get it... I'm 100% sure I will get it... I'm a health care worker, and chances are.. I'll be exposed in the next 10 days.
    but after i recover... i know the next time i get it.. it'll be nothing more than a runny nose...

    Be strong people.. We'll get thru it..

  2. #202
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    Well if nothing else this China bug is a study in the human condition. If anyone has any doubts about what really will happen when the real shit hits the blades then they have their collective heads stuck in the sand. Fighting over toilet paper says all you need to know about the human condition. Can you just imagine what people will do during a real crises of any real magnitude?

    PREPARE!

    https://www.theamericanmirror.com/20...other-tasered/
    MountainGirl and Renec like this.
    " All great things are simple, and many can be expressed in single words: Freedom, Justice, Honor, Duty, Mercy, Hope" .Hidden Content

  3. #203
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    Lots of people are taking the Virus seriously, and, becoming preppers.

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  5. #204
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    @BamaDOC

    Wonderful informative posts - THANKS!

    In it, you said:

    older people ... >70 ... will get very sick...
    for those with respiratory issues (smokers) and heart issues... the prolonged illness overwhelms them. but early treatment seems to help them survive long enough for their immune systems to catch up.


    ~ and ~

    for viral infections...
    SLEEP frequently and long.
    keep warm - viruses dont like warm temperatures.. thats why we have fevers... to make our bodies poor hosts..
    drink frequently - dehydration leads to weakness, organ failure.
    nutrition - even if you feel like crap... you need to take in nutrition.. chicken noodle soup .. anything liquid which you can drink... it sucks to swallow with a sore throat.. so keep it easy.
    get an electric blanket, or electric heating pad... youll have chills... but the warmer you are .. the less miserable youll be
    dont take tylenol or ibuprofen unless your temp gets over 102 , or you really cant sleep. fevers shorten duration of viral illnesses.
    wear a mask so you dont spread respiratory droplets when you cough... - make several out of tee shirts.. or use a bunch of bandanas...
    each cough will make it airborne... a mask will capture that... and its better than coughing on your hand and touching everything in your house.

    ****************
    My question is - what all early treatment are hospitals providing, other than doing the things you listed just above? Would it be reacting to other issues if/when they come up that was caused by the virus, rather than 'treating' for the virus itself? We'll be healing up here at home and I'm wondering if there's anything more we can do, here. The information you gave above is gold for us; most appreciated.

    Thanks!
    Renec likes this.
    BRING ALL TROOPS HOME NOW.

  6. #205
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  7. #206
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    Included in the poor response regarding Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, is the thing that is most troubling to me: Staff are being allowed to come and go for work. @BamaDOC can you explain to me why this isn't a terrible idea if, in fact, it isn't? I'll admit that I don't live far from that facility and at least some of the staff probably shop at the same stores I do so I'm extra bothered by this.
    Last edited by paulag1955; 03-08-2020 at 12:03 PM.
    Denton likes this.

  8. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by MountainGirl View Post
    @BamaDOC

    Wonderful informative posts - THANKS!

    In it, you said:

    older people ... >70 ... will get very sick...
    for those with respiratory issues (smokers) and heart issues... the prolonged illness overwhelms them. but early treatment seems to help them survive long enough for their immune systems to catch up.


    ~ and ~

    for viral infections...
    SLEEP frequently and long.
    keep warm - viruses dont like warm temperatures.. thats why we have fevers... to make our bodies poor hosts..
    drink frequently - dehydration leads to weakness, organ failure.
    nutrition - even if you feel like crap... you need to take in nutrition.. chicken noodle soup .. anything liquid which you can drink... it sucks to swallow with a sore throat.. so keep it easy.
    get an electric blanket, or electric heating pad... youll have chills... but the warmer you are .. the less miserable youll be
    dont take tylenol or ibuprofen unless your temp gets over 102 , or you really cant sleep. fevers shorten duration of viral illnesses.
    wear a mask so you dont spread respiratory droplets when you cough... - make several out of tee shirts.. or use a bunch of bandanas...
    each cough will make it airborne... a mask will capture that... and its better than coughing on your hand and touching everything in your house.

    ****************
    My question is - what all early treatment are hospitals providing, other than doing the things you listed just above? Would it be reacting to other issues if/when they come up that was caused by the virus, rather than 'treating' for the virus itself? We'll be healing up here at home and I'm wondering if there's anything more we can do, here. The information you gave above is gold for us; most appreciated.

    Thanks!
    most of the care is in the ICU setting.
    in patients with respiratory problems. aka chronic lung disease... their lung function is diminished from years of tobacco damage.
    their oxygen levels are very low ~50% compared to normal people... so they don't have the reserve to tolerate chest infections.

    older people with heart and lung conditions...
    and older people in general mount weaker responses.. and slower responses to infection...

    allowing this particular virus to spread to the lungs.
    normally the common cold is an upper respiratory tract infection which affects the airways above the vocal cords... think sore throat... runny nose.. cough ..sneeze...
    lower respiratory tract infections are much more serious... bronchitis.. pneumonia...
    covid has a rapid progressive pneumonia which dramatically reduces the lungs ability to exchange oxygen. and carbon dioxide, due to the accumulation of fluid in the lungs.

    your question about early hospital care involves
    supportive treatment as mentioned before.

    antivirals (anti HIV drugs)... and some new experimental . show promise but are in very limited supply
    oxygen supplementation
    positive pressure ventilation (bipap cpap)
    ventilatory support.
    nitric oxide, and inhaled prostaglandins - improve oxygenation

    and the extreme/ hail mary /... last ditch thing... lung bypass (ecmo) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. - oxygenating the blood directly .. bypassing the lung.

    the issue with these treatments... are that hospitals have the ability to surge , handle ~10-50% more patients than normal for small periods of time.
    they can give people oxygen in most patient rooms
    they can give meds in most rooms. but are limited by drugs.
    icu beds are severely limited and can only be surged to a small degree, based on limitations on the number of nurses and docs and respiratory therapists.
    ventillators are very limited in number.
    and only advanced tertiary (big) hospitals have capacity for ecmo.. and a limited number of those patients due to the number of machines and staff.

    In china, to reallocate their health care resources .. they made very tough choices.
    they let the old and sick die.. and quarantined them rather than treat
    they chose to treat those who were likely to benefit.
    they cancelled elective surgeries... and only did emergency care for non corona pts... this severely impacted other diseases like cancer, and heart disease, diabetes, etc...
    they re assigned all health care providers regardless of specialty to care for corona virus pts.
    they stockpiled and controlled meds, masks, supplies. (already happening in the usa)
    they forcibly quarantined sick people, and severely limited travel , work, public gatherings, and communication.


    hope this answered your question @MountainGirl
    Denton and Renec like this.

  9. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by paulag1955 View Post
    Included in the poor response regarding Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, is the thing that is most troubling to me: Staff are being allowed to come and go for work. @BamaDOC can you explain to me why this isn't a terrible idea if, in fact, it isn't? I'll admit that I don't live far from that facility and at least some of the staff probably shop at the same stores I do so I'm extra bothered by this.
    the only way to stop a pandemic is contact isolation, and immediate quarantine.
    that means.. if youve been exposed.. you stay isolated for 14 days or more till you prove you are no longer contagious.
    those who continue to go back and forth risk transmitting virus to those they work with, they touch things and contaminate surfaces..

    remember the cruise ship in japan?
    The passengers they stayed in their rooms, but the staff had to serve food, prepare food, clean, and wander around the ship.
    that was one sick passenger that sickened a few staff members who spread it to hundreds of passengers.
    the virus doesnt care who you are...
    if youre exposed you need to be isolated.
    the longer we can slow down the spread, the more time it buys for vaccine development.

    if the NIH , FDA, and cdc would get their heads out of their butts (no swearing here @Denton )
    and loosen up restrictions on vaccine development and testing, we can start accelerated trials earlier...
    for now it's all by the book... slowing down all development, despite the need for speed...
    Denton and Renec like this.

  10. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by BamaDOC View Post
    the only way to stop a pandemic is contact isolation, and immediate quarantine.
    that means.. if youve been exposed.. you stay isolated for 14 days or more till you prove you are no longer contagious.
    those who continue to go back and forth risk transmitting virus to those they work with, they touch things and contaminate surfaces..

    remember the cruise ship in japan?
    The passengers they stayed in their rooms, but the staff had to serve food, prepare food, clean, and wander around the ship.
    that was one sick passenger that sickened a few staff members who spread it to hundreds of passengers.
    the virus doesnt care who you are...
    if youre exposed you need to be isolated.
    the longer we can slow down the spread, the more time it buys for vaccine development.

    if the NIH , FDA, and cdc would get their heads out of their butts (no swearing here @Denton )
    and loosen up restrictions on vaccine development and testing, we can start accelerated trials earlier...
    for now it's all by the book... slowing down all development, despite the need for speed...
    So it is a terrible idea, then.
    Denton likes this.

  11. #210
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    And here's a nurse who's been working at Life Care Center since Tuesday, standing only a couple of feet away from a gaggle of reporters, talking. Getting her germs all over their microphones. I wish I could swear on this site, because I have some choice things to say about this. It will suffice to say, "Could those reporters be any stupider?"

    https://twitter.com/ColeMillerTV/sta...54325470187520

 

 
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