What's your SHTF scenario
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What's your SHTF scenario

This is a discussion on What's your SHTF scenario within the General Prepper and Survival Talk forums, part of the Survivalist, Prepper, Bushcrafter, Forest Rangers category; I'm a firm believer that in order to mitigate risks, one has to identify the most likely scenarios. I have read through a dozens of ...

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Thread: What's your SHTF scenario

  1. #1
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    Lightbulb What's your SHTF scenario

    I'm a firm believer that in order to mitigate risks, one has to identify the most likely scenarios.

    I have read through a dozens of threads, maybe in the low hundreds, but I haven't seen much in the way of specific threat scenarios discussed (it could just be the threads that looked interesting from the title). So my question to you all is this; what's the SHTF scenario you're prepping for?

    To start out, the scenario I'm looking to prepare for is a short term shut down of infrastructure. As a city dweller, in a temperate area, I'm not very worried about extreme weather like hurricanes or tornadoes. Also, I live near probably first strike targets, so there's no sense in planning for extreme scenarios like that when I'll be crispy in a few milliseconds.

    I think the most likely cause of this shut down would be from civil unrest. The good thing about civil unrest is that it usually doesn't last more than a few weeks; so even a few months of preps should like me ride it out with minimal difficulty. Also I'm thinking more along the lines of the Watt's Riots, not "The Purge."
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by SuburbanSurvivor View Post
    I'm a firm believer that in order to mitigate risks, one has to identify the most likely scenarios.

    I have read through a dozens of threads, maybe in the low hundreds, but I haven't seen much in the way of specific threat scenarios discussed (it could just be the threads that looked interesting from the title). So my question to you all is this; what's the SHTF scenario you're prepping for?
    I don't know yet, let me read through a few threads and catch up with your reading here ........ and I will let you know what I think.
    I will choose to enjoy the journey that God has prepared for me. Hidden Content

  3. #3
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    My SHTF is a natural catastrophe combined with civil unrest and martial law.

    Imagine a great earthquake that destroys cities. Electrical grid is severely damaged, water mains busted and sewer lines leaking all over the place contaminating the water. Bodies litter the streets, casualties from the earthquake rotting away and no disposal or burial plans in place.

    Streets, seaports airports are all useless due to the earthquake. No food delivery and rescuers could not get to the survivors to help.

    Then you get looters, thugs, thieves and people who just want to hurt others roaming around unchecked due to no effective law enforcement. Martial law implemented and people who are bugging in are targeted and forced to the FEMA camps. That's my perfect SHTF scenario.
    Last edited by 6811; 09-22-2016 at 10:29 PM.
    Slippy and tuffy_chick_13 like this.

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  5. #4
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    The first thing should be whatever natural event happens in your area. For me, that's tornado's.

    After that, your guess is as good as mine. As of right now, there are maybe threats of a variety of things that could happen in your area or nationwide. That could include a financial collapse, emp, civil war, invasion........ and the list could go on and the previous was in no particular order.

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    " All great things are simple, and many can be expressed in single words: Freedom, Justice, Honor, Duty, Mercy, Hope" .Hidden Content

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    I'm in the Northeast so most likely are hurricanes. Economic collapse and EMP are likely no matter where you are. I really hope we never have to bug out because we have a big family and I'm really not prepped for that yet.

  8. #7
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    I'm about 95% with you. I am a suburbanite who lives about six miles from a mall. I think malls are the new "soft targets," which is a misnomer in my case. Numerous stores are not posted and welcome firearms owners.

    The problem with bangers, muggers, jihadists and other drug addled anarchists is that they all believe the little "no weapons" decals on the front door of the mall's main entrance means there are no weapons in the entire mall.

    That could mean mass stabbings, shootings between gangs, domestic terrorists and even wife beaters "assuming" that they are safe in committing violent crimes.

    My SHTF scenario is leisurely drinking coffee with my wife and our friends (and we are armed) and a nut-job creates a no-win situation that has us all in PTSD therapy. I cannot stop a national revolt, so in my case the issue is random, smaller, armed violence.

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    I am prepping for every thing that could happen , just to be on the safe side , you never know what will happen .
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  10. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SuburbanSurvivor View Post
    I'm a firm believer that in order to mitigate risks, one has to identify the most likely scenarios.

    I have read through a dozens of threads, maybe in the low hundreds, but I haven't seen much in the way of specific threat scenarios discussed (it could just be the threads that looked interesting from the title). So my question to you all is this; what's the SHTF scenario you're prepping for?

    To start out, the scenario I'm looking to prepare for is a short term shut down of infrastructure. As a city dweller, in a temperate area, I'm not very worried about extreme weather like hurricanes or tornadoes. Also, I live near probably first strike targets, so there's no sense in planning for extreme scenarios like that when I'll be crispy in a few milliseconds.

    I think the most likely cause of this shut down would be from civil unrest. The good thing about civil unrest is that it usually doesn't last more than a few weeks; so even a few months of preps should like me ride it out with minimal difficulty. Also I'm thinking more along the lines of the Watt's Riots, not "The Purge."

    back in 2007 when the economy started to slow and there was talk of a recession - did you ever realize it would be deeper and last 9 years?

    that's why you prep for long term self sufficiency - a SHTF occurs and the economy NEVER comes back - there's a multitude of SHTFs - domestic and international that will compound with each other that'll turn this country sideways & back - dumping everything we know into the shitter for a lifetime plus ....
    I llini Warrior

  11. #10
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    No more booze definitely is top of the list. That would piss me off.

    As far as "what" or "most likely" you can take your guess - coups, revolts/riots, earthquakes, hurricane, Sharknados, EMPs, nuclear strikes, Chinese airborne regiments, weaponized Clap, virulent zoological diseases that give pigeons raging boners and skullhump everyone to death, gang violence, evil government stuff, zombies, vampires, Wrath of God?

    Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

 

 
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